Paul Hubert

Économiste-Chercheur - Service des Analyses Microéconomiques - Chercheur associé à Sciences Po - OFCE

Paul Hubert

Fonction actuelle

Économiste-Chercheur au Service des Analyses Microéconomiques
Chercheur associé à Sciences Po - OFCE

Fonctions antérieures

Chercheur à Sciences Po - OFCE, 2010 - 2021
Chercheur invité à la Banque d’Angleterre, 2013 - 2015

Diplômes

Doctorat en Économie, Sciences Po, 2010
Master en Économie, Sciences Po, 2006
Licence d’Économie, Université Paris-Dauphine, 2003

Thèmes de Recherche

Macroéconomie, politique monétaire

Contact

paul.hubert@banque-france.fr
+33 (0)1 42 92 27 73
Banque de France, DGEI-DEMS-SAMIC - 31 rue Croix des Petits Champs, 75049 Paris Cedex 01

Publications académiques

"The Signaling Effects of Central Bank Tone" (2021), European Economic Review, 133, 103684, with Fabien Labondance.
"Policy and Macro Signals from Central Bank Announcements" (2021), International Journal of Central Banking, with Becky Maule. [Appendix]
"On the External Validity of Experimental Inflation Forecasts" (2020), Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 110, 103746, with Camille Cornand.
"The Intertwining of Credit and Banking Fragility" (2020), International Journal of Finance and Economics, 26(1), 459-475, with Jérôme Creel and Fabien Labondance.
"The Role of ECB Monetary Policy and Financial Stress on Eurozone Sovereign Yields" (2020), Empirical Economics, 59, 1189–1211, with Christophe Blot, Jérôme Creel and Fabien Labondance.
"The Role of Forward and Backward-Looking Information for Inflation Expectations Formation" (2019), Journal of Forecasting, 38(8), 733-748, with Harun Mirza.
"The Effect of ECB Forward Guidance on the Term Structure of Interest Rates" (2018), International Journal of Central Banking, 14(5), 193-222, with Fabien Labondance.
"Qualitative and Quantitative Central Bank Communication and Inflation Expectations" (2017), B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, 7(1), 1-41.
"The Effect of ECB Monetary Policies on Interest Rates and Volumes" (2016), Applied Economics, 48(47), 4477-4501, with Jérôme Creel and Mathilde Viennot.
"Do Central Bank Forecasts Influence Private Agents? Forecasting Performance vs. Signals" (2015), Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 47(4), 771-789.
"Has Inflation Targeting Changed the Conduct of Monetary Policy?" (2015), Macroeconomic Dynamics, 19(1), 1-21, with Jérôme Creel.
"Assessing the Link between Price and Financial Stability" (2015), Journal of Financial Stability, 16, 71-88, with Christophe Blot, Jérôme Creel, Fabien Labondance and Francesco Saraceno.
"The Influence and Policy Signalling Role of FOMC Forecasts" (2015), Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 77(5), 655-680.
"ECB Projections as a Tool for Understanding Policy Decisions" (2015), Journal of Forecasting, 34(7), 574-587.
"Financial Stability and Economic Performance" (2015), Economic Modelling, 48, 25-40, with Jérôme Creel and Fabien Labondance.
"FOMC Forecasts as a Focal Point for Private Expectations" (2014), Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 46(7), 1381-1420.
"An Assesment of the SGP Reform in a Small-Scale Macro Framework" (2013), Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 37(8), 1567-1580, with Jérôme Creel and Francesco Saraceno.
"The European Fiscal Compact: A Counterfactual Assessment" (2012), Journal of Economic Integration, 27, 537-563, with Jérôme Creel and Francesco Saraceno.
"The Nature of Oil Shocks and the Global Economy" (2012), Energy Policy, 42, 509-520, with Liza Archanskaïa and Jérôme Creel.
"Constrained Discretion in Sweden" (2012), Research in Economics, 66(1), 33-44, with Jérôme Creel.
"Les effets redistributifs des politiques monétaires de la BCE" (2018), Revue d'Economie Financière, 128, 165-180, with Christophe Blot, Jérôme Creel and Fabien Labondance.
"De l'importance de la nature des chocs pétroliers" (2010), Revue Economique, 61(3), 511-520, with Liza Archanskaïa and Jérôme Creel.
"L’adoption du ciblage d’inflation produit-elle un changement de régime?" (2009), Revue Economique, 60(3), 727-735, with Jérôme Creel.

Autres

"The State-Dependence of Output Revisions" (2020), Economics Letters, 192, 109223, with Bruno Ducoudré and Guilhem Tabarly.
"Monetary policy and asset prices in the euro area since the global financial crisis" (2020), Revue d'Economie Politique, 130(2), 257-281, with Christophe Blot and Fabien Labondance.
"Euro Area Inflation and ECB Policy in a Global Environment" (2016), Politica Economica Journal of Economic Policy, 32(3), 539-554, with Christophe Blot, Jérôme Creel, Fabien Labondance and Xavier Ragot.
"Policy Implications of Learning from More Accurate Central Bank Forecasts" (2015), Economics Bulletin, 35(1), 466-474.
"Assessing the Future Sustainability of French Public Finances" (2014), in Fiscal and Debt Policies for the Future, Palgrave, with Jérôme Creel and Francesco Saraceno.
"French Public Finances at Risk?” (2014), Panoeconomicus, 61(1), 1-19, with Jérôme Creel and Francesco Saraceno.