Paul Hubert

Research Economist, Microeconomic Analysis Division | Associate Researcher, Sciences Po - OFCE

Paul Hubert

Current Position

Research Economist, Microeconomic Analysis Division | Associate Researcher, Sciences Po - OFCE

Previous Positions

 

  • Researcher, Sciences Po - OFCE, 2010 - 2021
  • Visiting Researcher, Bank of England, 2013 - 2015

Diplomas

 

  • PhD in Economics, Sciences Po, 2010
  • Master in Economics, Sciences Po, 2006
  • BS in Economics, Université Paris-Dauphine, 2003

Research Interests

Macroeconomics, monetary economics

Contact

  • paul.hubert@banque-france.fr
  • +33 (0)1 42 92 27 73
  • Banque de France, DGEI-DEMS-SAMIC - 31 rue Croix des Petits Champs, 75049 Paris Cedex 01

Academic Publications

Articles
  • "The Signaling Effects of Central Bank Tone" (2021), European Economic Review, 133, 103684, with Fabien Labondance.
  • "Policy and Macro Signals from Central Bank Announcements" (2021), International Journal of Central Banking, with Becky Maule. [Appendix]
  • "On the External Validity of Experimental Inflation Forecasts" (2020), Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 110, 103746, with Camille Cornand.
  • "The Intertwining of Credit and Banking Fragility" (2020), International Journal of Finance and Economics, 26(1), 459-475, with Jérôme Creel and Fabien Labondance.
  • "The Role of ECB Monetary Policy and Financial Stress on Eurozone Sovereign Yields" (2020), Empirical Economics, 59, 1189–1211, with Christophe Blot, Jérôme Creel and Fabien Labondance.
  • "The Role of Forward and Backward-Looking Information for Inflation Expectations Formation" (2019), Journal of Forecasting, 38(8), 733-748, with Harun Mirza.
  • "The Effect of ECB Forward Guidance on the Term Structure of Interest Rates" (2018), International Journal of Central Banking, 14(5), 193-222, with Fabien Labondance.
  • "Qualitative and Quantitative Central Bank Communication and Inflation Expectations" (2017), B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, 7(1), 1-41.
  • "The Effect of ECB Monetary Policies on Interest Rates and Volumes" (2016), Applied Economics, 48(47), 4477-4501, with Jérôme Creel and Mathilde Viennot.
  • "Do Central Bank Forecasts Influence Private Agents? Forecasting Performance vs. Signals" (2015), Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 47(4), 771-789.
  • "Has Inflation Targeting Changed the Conduct of Monetary Policy?" (2015), Macroeconomic Dynamics, 19(1), 1-21, with Jérôme Creel.
  • "Assessing the Link between Price and Financial Stability" (2015), Journal of Financial Stability, 16, 71-88, with Christophe Blot, Jérôme Creel, Fabien Labondance and Francesco Saraceno.
  • "The Influence and Policy Signalling Role of FOMC Forecasts" (2015), Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 77(5), 655-680.
  • "ECB Projections as a Tool for Understanding Policy Decisions" (2015), Journal of Forecasting, 34(7), 574-587.
  • "Financial Stability and Economic Performance" (2015), Economic Modelling, 48, 25-40, with Jérôme Creel and Fabien Labondance.
  • "FOMC Forecasts as a Focal Point for Private Expectations" (2014), Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 46(7), 1381-1420.
  • "An Assesment of the SGP Reform in a Small-Scale Macro Framework" (2013), Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 37(8), 1567-1580, with Jérôme Creel and Francesco Saraceno.
  • "The European Fiscal Compact: A Counterfactual Assessment" (2012), Journal of Economic Integration, 27, 537-563, with Jérôme Creel and Francesco Saraceno.
  • "The Nature of Oil Shocks and the Global Economy" (2012), Energy Policy, 42, 509-520, with Liza Archanskaïa and Jérôme Creel.
  • "Constrained Discretion in Sweden" (2012), Research in Economics, 66(1), 33-44, with Jérôme Creel.
  • "Les effets redistributifs des politiques monétaires de la BCE" (2018), Revue d'Economie Financière, 128, 165-180, with Christophe Blot, Jérôme Creel and Fabien Labondance.
  • "De l'importance de la nature des chocs pétroliers" (2010), Revue Economique, 61(3), 511-520, with Liza Archanskaïa and Jérôme Creel.
  • "L’adoption du ciblage d’inflation produit-elle un changement de régime?" (2009), Revue Economique, 60(3), 727-735, with Jérôme Creel.
Others
  • "The State-Dependence of Output Revisions" (2020), Economics Letters, 192, 109223, with Bruno Ducoudré and Guilhem Tabarly.
  • "Monetary policy and asset prices in the euro area since the global financial crisis" (2020), Revue d'Economie Politique, 130(2), 257-281, with Christophe Blot and Fabien Labondance.
  • "Euro Area Inflation and ECB Policy in a Global Environment" (2016), Politica Economica Journal of Economic Policy, 32(3), 539-554, with Christophe Blot, Jérôme Creel, Fabien Labondance and Xavier Ragot.
  • "Policy Implications of Learning from More Accurate Central Bank Forecasts" (2015), Economics Bulletin, 35(1), 466-474.
  • "Assessing the Future Sustainability of French Public Finances" (2014), in Fiscal and Debt Policies for the Future, Palgrave, with Jérôme Creel and Francesco Saraceno.
  • "French Public Finances at Risk?” (2014), Panoeconomicus, 61(1), 1-19, with Jérôme Creel and Francesco Saraceno.