Banque de France, 49-1374 DGEI-DEMS-SEPS, 75049 Paris Cedex 01
+33 (0)1 42 22 51 79
PhD in Economics, Paris School of Economics, 2017
MA in Economics, Paris School of Economics, 2014
MS in Economics and Statistics, ENSAE, 2014
BS, Ecole Polytechnique promotion X2010, 2013
Economist and researcher at Department of Structural Policies Studies.
Champs de recherche : Productivité, Innovation, Croissance.
Aghion, Philippe, Bergeaud, Antonin, Melitz, Marc J. and Lequien, Matthieu (2018): "The Impact of Exports on Innovation: Theory and Evidence," NBER working paper 24600 (submitted)
This paper investigates the effect of export shocks on innovation. On the one hand a positive shock increases market size and therefore innovation incentives for all firms. On the other hand it increases competition as more firms enter the export market. This in turn reduces profits and therefore innovation incentives particularly for firms with low initial productivity. Overall the positive impact of the export shock on innovation is magnified for high productivity firms, whereas it may negatively affect innovation in low productivity firms. We test this prediction with patent, customs and production data covering all French manufacturing firms. To address potential endogeneity issues, we construct firm-level export proxies which respond to aggregate conditions in a firm's export destinations but are exogenous to firm-level decisions. We show that patenting robustly increases more with export demand for initially more productive firms. This effect is reversed for the least productive firms as the negative competition effect dominates.
Aghion, Philippe, Bergeaud, Antonin, Boppart, Timo, Klenow, Peter J. and Li, Huiyu (2017): "Missing Growth from Creative Destruction," NBER working paper 24023 (R&R American Economic Review)
See also: VoxEU blog
Statistical agencies typically impute inflation for disappearing products based on surviving products, which may result in overstated inflation and understated growth. Using U.S. Census data, we apply two ways of assessing the magnitude of “missing growth” for private nonfarm businesses from 1983–2013. The first approach exploits information on the market share of surviving plants. The second approach applies indirect inference to firm-level data. We find: (i) missing growth from imputation is substantial — at least 0.6 percentage points per year; and (ii) most of the missing growth is due to creative destruction (as opposed to new varieties).
Aghion, Philippe, Akcigit, Ufuk, Bergeaud, Antonin, Blundell, Richard and Hemous, David (2015): "Innovation and Top Income Inequality," NBER working paper 21247 (Forthcoming Review of Economic Studies)
In this paper we use cross-state panel and cross US commuting-zone data to look at the relationship between innovation, top income inequality and social mobility. We find positive and significant correlations between measures of innovation on the one hand, and top income inequality on the other hand. We also show that the correlations between innovation and broad measures of inequality are not significant, and that top income inequality is no longer correlated with highly lagged innovation. Next, using instrumentation analysis, we argue that these correlations at least partly reflect a causality from innovation to top income shares. Finally, we show that innovation, particularly by new entrants, is positively associated with social mobility, but less so in Metropolitan Statistical Areas with more intense lobbying activities.
Bergeaud, Antonin, Potiron, Yoann and Raimbault, Juste (2017): "Classifying patents based on their semantic contents," PLOS ONE, vol. 12(4)
In this paper, we extend some usual techniques of classification resulting from a large-scale data-mining and network approach. This new technology, which in particular is designed to be suitable to big data, is used to construct an open consolidated database from raw data on 4 million patents taken from the US patent office from 1976 onward. To build the pattern network, not only do we look at each patent title, but we also examine their full abstract and extract the relevant keywords accordingly. We refer to this classification as semantic approach in contrast with the more common technological approach which consists in taking the topology when considering US Patent office technological classes. Moreover, we document that both approaches have highly different topological measures and strong statistical evidence that they feature a different model. This suggests that our method is a useful tool to extract endogenous information.
Bergeaud, Antonin and Ray, Simon (2017): "Adjustment Costs and Factor Demand: New Evidence From Firms’ Real Estate," Banque de France working paper 641 (R&R Economic Journal)
Adjustment costs impair the optimal allocation of production factor across firms. In this paper, we use the cost associated with corporate relocation to explore the effect of the adjustment costs of the premises size on factor demand. We rely on the tax on realized capital gains on real estate asset, which entails varying real estate adjustment costs across firms, to empirically study the effect of these frictions on firms' behaviour. We develop a general equilibrium model, with heterogeneous firms, that sheds light on the implication of the level of the fixed costs associated with the adjustment of real estate on the change in firms' labor demand following productivity shocks. This model predicts that employment growth of firms facing positive productivity shocks shrinks with the level of the frictions. Confronting these results using French firm-level data over the period 1994-2013, we find that higher adjustment costs constrain relocation and reduce job creation of the most dynamic firms. The highlighted frictions have noticeable macroeconomic effects.
Aghion, Philippe, Bergeaud, Antonin, Boppart, Timo and Bunel, Simon (2018): "Firm Dynamics and Growth Measurement in France", Banque de France working paper 676 (Forthcoming Journal of European Economic Association P&P)
This paper uses the theory and methodology developed by Aghion et al. (2017) to quantify in the case of France how much of productivity growth is missed by statistical offices. We find that from 2004 to 2015, about 0.5 percentage point of real output growth per year is not taken into account, which is about the same as what was found in the U.S. We show that these figures however hide different underlying establishment and firm's lifecycle dynamics in the two countries.
Bergeaud, Antonin, Cette, Gilbert and Lecat, Rémy (2018): "The role of production factor quality and technology diffusion in 20th century productivity growth," Cliometrica, vol. 12(1), pages 61-97.
The 20th century was a period of exceptional growth, driven mainly by the increase in total factor productivity (TFP). Studying 17 OECD countries over the 1890-2013 period, this paper shows that the “one big wave” of productivity growth in the mid-20th century, as well as the ICT productivity wave, remain only partially explained when taking into account quality-adjusted factors such as education, equipment age and technology diffusion along with the stock of productive capital and hours worked. These results plead for a wider view on growth factors, encompassing changes in the production process, management techniques, financing practices, firm demography and factor allocation.
Bergeaud, Antonin, Cette, Gilbert and Lecat, Rémy (2017): "Total Factor Productivity in Advanced Countries: A Long-term Perspective," International Productivity Monitor, vol. 32, pages 6-24.
Changes in GDP during the 20th century have been mainly driven by total factor productivity (TFP). This article synthesizes results from our research based on the long period (1890- 2015) productivity database we have constructed. In particular, we aim to refine our TFP measure by including the contribution of the improved quality of factor inputs and technology diffusion to TFP growth in four developed areas or countries: the United States, the euro area, the United Kingdom, and Japan. Two types of factor quality are considered: the average level of education and the average age of equipment. Two technological shocks corresponding to two general purpose technologies are investigated: electricity and information and communication technologies (ICT).
Bergeaud, Antonin, Cette, Gilbert and Lecat, Rémy (2016): "Productivity Trends in Advanced Countries between 1890 and 2012," Review of Income and Wealth, vol. 62(3), pages 420–444.
In order to examine productivity waves and convergence processes, we study productivity trends, trend breaks, and levels for 13 advanced countries between 1890 and 2012. We highlight two productivity waves, a big one following the second industrial revolution and a smaller one following the ICT revolution. The convergence process has been erratic, halted by inappropriate institutions, technology shocks, financial crises, and above all wars, which led to major productivity level leaps, downwards for countries experiencing war on their soil, and upwards for other countries. Productivity trend breaks have been identified following wars, global financial crises, global supply shocks, and major policy changes. The upward trend break for the U.S. in the mid-1990s has been confirmed, as has the downward trend break for the euro area in the same period.
Bergeaud, Antonin, Cette, Gilbert and Lecat, Rémy (2015): "GDP per capita in advanced countries over the 20th century," Banque de France working paper 549
This study presents a GDP per capita level and growth comparison across 17 main advanced countries and over the 1890-2013 long period. It proposes also a comparison of the level and growth of the main components of GDP per capita through an accounting breakdown and runs Philips-Sul (2007) convergence tests over GDP per capita and its main components. These components are total factor productivity, capital intensity (capital stock per hours worked), working time and employment rate. Over the whole period, standards of living as measured by GDP per capita experienced a very marked increase in advanced countries, especially because of the surge in Total Factor Productivity (TFP) and in capital intensity.
Aghion, Philippe, Bergeaud, Antonin, Blundell, Richard and Griffith, Rachel (2017): "The Innovation Premium to Low Skill Jobs," mimeo IFS
This paper uses matched employee-employer data from the UK that we augment with information on R&D expenditures, to analyze the relationship between innovativeness and average wage income for different skills across firms. We first show that more R&D intensive firms pay higher wages on average. Our second and main finding is that the premium to working in more R&D intensive firms is higher for low-skilled workers than for high-skilled workers. As technology advances, demand for high skilled workers increases and they do better overall, but low skilled workers in innovative firms do better than other low-skilled workers. To account for these findings, we develop a simple model of the firm where the complementarity between high-skill occupation and low-skill occupation employees within the firm increases with the firm’s degree of innovativeness. An additional prediction of the model, which is also confirmed by the empirical analysis, is that low-skilled workers stay longer in more innovative firms.
Bergeaud, Antonin, Cette, Gilbert and Lecat, Rémy (2017): "Le PIB par habitant et la productivité dans les économies avancées : regard sur le XXe siècle et perspectives pour le XXIe," Bulletin de la Banque de France, Mai-Juin 2017.
Bergeaud, Antonin, Cette, Gilbert and Lecat, Rémy (2017): "Croissance économique et productivité. Un regard sur longue période dans les principales économies développées," Revue Futuribles n° 417.
Bergeaud, Antonin, Cette, Gilbert and Lecat, Rémy (2015): "Le produit intérieur brut par habitant sur longue période en France et dans les pays avancés : le rôle de la productivité et de l'emploi," Revue d'économie et de statistique, numéro 474.
Mis à jour le : 13/07/2018 14:21