Using micro-data on households, firms and professional forecasters much recent research has documented significant and heterogeneous departures of expectations from the rational, fully informed benchmark. Other contributions have stressed the consequences of limited information and imperfect expectations for macroeconomic dynamics and the effects of policies.
The third edition of this conference aims at bringing together leading researchers from academia, central banks and other policy institutions to present research findings related to the importance of expectations for macroeconomic dynamics and the conduct of macroeconomic policies.
Registration before May 10, 2025
Program:
Tuesday, May 13 (R2-01)
09:00 – Welcome coffee
09:20-10:30 – Session 1 Fabian Seyrich (Frankfurt School of Finance & Management), with Oliver Pfäuti, Jonathan Zinman - Beyond bad luck… Macroeconomic Implications of Persistent Heterogeneity in Optimism Esteban Verdugo (University of Michigan), with Mathieu Pedemonte, Hiroshi Toma - Aggregate Implications of Heterogeneous Inflation Expectations: The Role of Individual Experience
10:30-11:00 – Coffee break
11:00-12:00 – Keynote speaker Jenifer La’0 (Columbia University in the City of New York, CEPR) with Hassan Afrouzi, Benjamin Hebert, John Leahy
Sectoral Salience
12:00-14:00 – Lunch
14:00-15:10 – Session 2 Mary Tzaawa-Krenzler (Goethe-Universität), with Ekaterina Shabalina - Heterogeneous Attention to Inflation and Monetary Policy Rupal Kamdar (Indiana University), with Walker Ray - Attention-Driven Sentiment and the Business Cycle
15:10-15:40 – Coffee break
15:40-16:50 – Session 3 Rafael Gonçalves (Princeton University), with Ina Hajdini - Firms’ Inflation Expectations: Determinants and Macroeconomic Implications Richard Foltyn (Norwegian School of Economics) - Experience-based Learning, Stock Market Participation and Portfolio Choice
16:50-17:20 – Coffee break
17:20-18:30 – Session 4 Kenza Benhima (Université de Lausanne, CEPR), with Elio Bolliger, Margaret Davenport - Granular Expectation Shocks and International Financial Contagion Josefina Cenzon (Bocconi University) - Credit Market Experiences and Macroeconomic Expectations: Evidence and Theory
Wednesday, May 14 (R1-09)
09:30-10:40 – Session 5 John Tsoukalas (Glasgow University), with Luca Gambetti, Dimitris Korobilis, Francesco Zanetti - Agreed and Disagreed Uncertainty Jeremy Boccanfuso (University of Bologna), with Luca Neri - Uncovering Attention Heterogeneity
10:40-11:10 – Coffee break
11:10-12:20 – Session 6 Bartosz Mackowiak (European Central Bank, CEPR), with Mirko Wiederholt - Rational Inattention during an RCT Alena Wabitsch (University of Oxford), with Sergii Drobot, Daniel Puzzelo, Ryan Rholes - Incentivizing Inflation Expectations
12:20-13:20 – Lunch
13:20-14:20 – Keynote speaker Olivier Coibion (University of Texas at Austin, CEPR) with D. Georgarakos, K. Kim, M. Shim, M. Lee, Y. Gorodnichenko, G. Kenny, S. Han, M. Weber
How Costly Are Business Cycle Volatility and Inflation? A Vox Populi Approach
14:20-14:50 – Coffee break
14:50-16:00 – Session 7 Okan Akarsu (Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye), with Emrehan Aktug, Huzeyfe Torun
Inflation Expectations and Firms’ Decisions in High Inflation: Evidence from a Randomized Control Trial - Frédérique Savignac (Banque de France), with Erwan Gautier, Olivier Coibion
Firms’ Inflation and Wage Expectations in Times of High Inflation
For any further information or if you have any difficulties registering for this meeting, please contact Despoina Chatzilari, Senior Events Officer at dchatzilari@cepr.org.
Gaetano Gaballo acknowledges funding from the European Research Council (ERC) under the European Union’s Horizon Europe research and innovation programme (Grant agreement No 101088411).
Organising Committee
Tobias Broer (PSE, IIES Stockholm University and CEPR)
Gaetano Gaballo (HEC and CEPR)
Erwan Gautier (Banque de France)
Paul Hubert (Banque de France and Sciences Po - OFCE)
