Macroeconomic projections – December 2025

Mise en ligne le 23 Décembre 2025

In order to contribute to the national and European economic debate, the Banque de France periodically publishes macroeconomic forecasts for France, constructed as part of the Eurosystem projection exercise and covering the current and two forthcoming years. Some of the publications also include an in-depth analysis of the results, along with focus articles on topics of interest.

Our new macroeconomic projections were finalised in early December amidst major domestic uncertainty. As budget discussions are still ongoing, as was the case last year, the projections are based on a conventional assumption for 2026 underpinned by the government’s Draft Budget Act and the Social Security Financing Bill. However, less fiscal consolidation than that envisaged in the draft legislation would not lead to surplus growth, as prolonged fiscal uncertainty would still result in more cautious behaviour from households and businesses.
In light of its 0.5% increase in the third quarter of 2025, and the latest information available for the fourth quarter, GDP is expected to grow by an annual average of 0.9% in 2025, after the 1.1% increase recorded in 2024. Activity has been driven mainly by the production of transport equipment (aeronautics), with restocking in the first half of the year in anticipation of very strong exports in the second half. Growth is expected to strengthen slightly to 1.0% in 2026 and 2027, and to 1.1% in 2028, buoyed by a recovery in household consumption and private investment.
Inflation should remain below 2% over the projection horizon. After the figure of 2.3% recorded for 2024, average annual headline inflation (HICP) is expected to bottom out in 2025 at 0.9%, driven down by the sharp decline in energy prices in the wake of the fall in regulated electricity and oil prices. It should then rise to 1.3% in 2027, and to 1.8% in 2028. Inflation excluding energy and food – mainly caused by services inflation – is expected to remain broadly stable over the projection horizon (i.e. at around 1.6% to 1.7%).
After relatively sluggish growth in 2025, due in particular to high levels of savings linked to current uncertainty, household consumption should grow in a fairly sustained manner in 2026, underpinned by purchasing power gains from increases in the average wage per employee and then by job recovery from 2027 onwards, assuming lower levels of political and fiscal uncertainty. The unemployment rate of 7.7% in the third quarter of 2025, is expected to rise slightly in 2026, before declining to 7.6% in 2027 and to 7.4% in 2028.
The risks surrounding the growth outlook are balanced on the whole. Recent upside surprises in economic activity could represent the first signs of a faster rebound in private demand. Conversely, continued political and fiscal instability are expected to continue to weigh on both household consumption and business investment. The uncertainties surrounding inflation stem in particular from import prices (raw materials, exchange rates, increase in Chinese imports, etc.) in an uncertain international context.

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Projections macroéconomiques – Décembre 2025

Mise à jour le 23 Décembre 2025