Nouvelles données et nouveaux outils pour comprendre le commerce international dans un monde en mutation

Cette conférence a pour objectif de réunir des travaux de recherche récents mobilisant de nouvelles sources de données et des outils de modélisation innovants afin de suivre, prévoir et analyser ces évolutions.

14h - Opening remarks 

14h05 – Keynote speech - [trade research, new data and tools]
               
               Professor Simon Evenett, IMD Business School

Session 1 – Using new sources of data to track trade

14h40     Monitoring trade by commodity using big data
Graham Pilgrim, Yann Dorville & Annabelle Mourougane (2026)
Monitoring trade by commodity using big data

15h00     Trade under Tensions: Insights from Media-Reported Bilateral Events
CEPII Working Paper 2026-02, Nathan Chevalier, Matthieu Crozet, Charlotte Emlinger & Daniel Mirza (2026)
Trade under Tensions: Insights from Media-Reported Bilateral Events
    
15h20     Automatic Product Classification in International Trade: Machine Learning and Large Language Models
Ignacio Marra de Artiñano, Franco Riottini Depetris & Christian Volpe Martincus  (2025)
 Automatic Product Classification in International Trade: Machine Learning and Large Language Models

15h40    Bilateral Conflict Risk and Trade: Military Wars, Trade Wars, and Diplomatic Noise
Joshua Aizenman, Rodolphe Desbordes & Jamel  Saadaoui (2026)
Bilateral Conflict Risk and Trade: Military Wars, Trade Wars, and Diplomatic Noise

16h00 - Short break

Session 2 – Applying new modelling approaches to analyse and predict trade

16h10     New insights on services export competitiveness: drivers of comparative advantage and the granularity hypothesis across sectors and modes of supply 
Matteo Fiorini and Andrew Green (forthcoming)

16h30     The heterogeneous impact of the EU-Canada agreement with causal machine learning
Lionel Fontagné, Francesca Micocci & Armando Rung (2026) 
The heterogeneous impact of the EU-Canada agreement with causal machine learning 

16h50     Nowcasting World Trade with Machine Learning: A Three-Step Approach. 
 Menzie Chinn, Baptiste Meunier & Sebastian Stumpner (2023) 
Nowcasting world trade with machine learning: a three-step approach

17h10    Machine learning and economic forecasting: The role of international trade networks 
Thiago Christiano Silva, Paulo Victor Berri Wilhelm & Diego R. Amancio (2024)
Machine learning and economic forecasting: The role of international trade networks

17h30 - Closing remarks 

Organizing and Scientific Committees: 
Sebastian Barnes (OECD), Jean-Charles Bricongne (Banque de France), Jean-Brieux Delbos (Banque de France), Jérôme Coffinet (Banque de France), Roland Lubrano (Banque de France), Annabelle Mourougane (OECD) and members of the GVE IA DS and OECD Innovation LAB.