ECB Consumer Expectations Survey results – September 2025

Compared with August 2025:

  • median consumer perceptions of inflation over the previous 12 months remained unchanged, as did median expectations for inflation three years ahead and five years ahead, while median inflation expectations for the next 12 months decreased slightly;
  • expectations for nominal income growth over the next 12 months were unchanged, while expectations for spending growth over the next 12 months increased;
  • expectations for economic growth over the next 12 months and the expected unemployment rate in 12 months’ time were both unchanged;
  • expectations for growth in the price of homes over the next 12 months increased, as did expectations for mortgage interest rates 12 months ahead.

Mise en ligne le 28 Octobre 2025

Inflation

In September, the median rate of perceived inflation over the previous 12 months remained unchanged at 3.1% for the eighth consecutive month. Median expectations for inflation over the next 12 months decreased to 2.7%, from 2.8% in August. Expectations for inflation three years ahead were unchanged at 2.5%, as were those for five years ahead, which remained unchanged at 2.2%. Uncertainty about inflation expectations over the next 12 months remained unchanged in September. Respondents in lower income quintiles continued to report on average slightly higher inflation perceptions and short-horizon expectations than those in higher income quintiles, a trend observed since 2023. However, the broad evolution of inflation perceptions and expectations remained relatively closely aligned across income groups. Younger respondents (aged 18-34) continued to report lower inflation perceptions and expectations than older respondents (aged 35-54 and 55-70).

Inflation results

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Mise à jour le 28 Octobre 2025

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