The International Macroeconomics Chair: Lecture by Valerie Ramey

Do temporary cash transfers stimulate the macroeconomy?

The conference will be held at the Paris School of Economics and will be followed by a discussion with Etienne Fize (PSE, IPP).

Friday, March 28, 2025 ; 14:00-15:30 (Paris Time)
Paris School of Economics
48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris
Daniel Cohen Amphitheater

Registration is mandatory before March 26, 2025

Abstract

Do Temporary Cash Transfers Stimulate the Macroeconomy? Evidence from Four Case Studies

This paper re-evaluates the effectiveness of temporary transfers in stimulating the macroeconomy, using evidence from four case studies. The rebirth of Keynesian stabilization policy has lingering costs in terms of higher debt paths, so it is important to assess the benefits of these policies. In each case study, Valerie Ramey analyzes whether the behavior of the aggregate data is consistent with the transfers providing an effective stimulus. Two of the case studies are reviews of evidence from her recent work on the 2001 and 2008 U.S. tax rebates. The other two case studies are new analyses of temporary transfers in Singapore and Australia. In all four instances, the evidence suggests that temporary cash transfers to households likely provided little or no stimulus to the macroeconomy.

Valerie Ramey

Valerie Ramey received her B.A. with a double major in Economics and Spanish from the University of Arizona, graduating summa cum laude. She went on to earn a Ph.D. in Economics from Stanford University. She is currently a Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution of Stanford University, a Professor of Economics at the University of California, San Diego and a Research Associate of the National Bureau of Economic Research.
She is a member of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences and a Fellow of the Econometric Society. She has served as co-editor of the American Economic Review, chair of the Economics Department at UCSD, and as a member of several National Science Foundation Advisory Panels and the Federal Economic Statistics Advisory Committee.
She currently serves on the Panel of Economic Advisers for the Congressional Budget Office and on the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, and she is an associate editor of the Quarterly Journal of Economics and the Journal of Political Economy.

This event is organized by the International Macroeconomics Chair, which is the result of a partnership between the Banque de France and PSE. Sharing the same vision about scientific needs on international issues, these two organisations joint their efforts to build a chair with the objective of fostering the development of research on the financial & monetary international system, and in international macro-economics.