The impacts of monetary and financial policy on the real economy
This macroeconomic analysis is complemented by a monetary and financial analysis using indicators that are especially useful for assessing the actual impact of monetary policy on the real economy: these include interest rates on financial markets, financing conditions experienced by economic agents and inflation scenarios.
These analyses are used to highlight trends affecting the financial system, such as an increase in non-bank financial intermediation, or to identify any obstacles to effective policy transmission to the real economy, such as market fragmentation or stress. In addition, because financial stability is a prerequisite for price stability, the Banque de France also analyses financial stability risks and their impact on inflation.
Considerable human and technical resources
To produce these different short and medium-range analyses and forecasts, the Banque de France draws upon a pool of experts from various different backgrounds, i.e. statisticians, economists, economic forecasters and researchers. Their complementary expertise enables us to produce a comprehensive, 360° degree analysis of the macroeconomic, monetary and financial situation in France.
These analyses are underpinned by models developed to analyse and forecast the main macroeconomic variables, including:
GDP: short-term forecasts using sector dashboards and ISMA and PRISME forecasting models, based in particular on the monthly business surveys; medium-term forecasts and simulations of economic policies using
- FR-BDF and EA-BDF models)
- Inflation (the MAPI model)
- Public finances (MAPU model), etc.