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Does uncertainty surrounding inflation forecasts predict their accuracy?

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Inflation

Post No. 461. Are individuals who are most confident in their forecasts the most accurate? This is what household surveys reveal, unlike professional forecasters. Drawing on four surveys from the euro area and the United States, we show that the uncertainty reported by households regarding their inflation forecasts contains information about the quality of those forecasts, particularly when households overestimate inflation.

2nd of October 2026

Marking our tenth anniversary: One conviction, two principles and three challenges

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Economy

2nd of October 2026

Chinese competition: which French industrial sectors are exposed?

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Trade

28th of September 2026

Dear savings: the Savings and Investments Union (Part 1)

Tribune

Savings

+1

22nd of September 2026

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7th of October 2026

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Seminar

IBFI

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13th of October 2026

Human Resources: Key Challenges and Practices in Central Banks

Seminar

IBFI

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14th of October 2026

Sciences Po / Banque de France Research Seminar

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Banque de France

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Circulaire C-2026-11 relative à l’organisation du Contrôle Général

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Banque de France

1st of October 2026

Le rapport annuel 2025 de l’Observatoire des délais de paiement : des résultats contrastés selon les acteurs

Communiqué de presse

Banque de France

24th of September 2026

Arrêté du Conseil général A-2026-04 relatif à la rémunération variable des experts

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Banque de France

22nd of September 2026

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