Macroeconomic projections
Economic conditions

Macroeconomic projections – June 2025

Published on the 11th of June 2025

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In order to contribute to the national and European economic debate, the Banque de France periodically publishes macroeconomic forecasts for France, constructed as part of the Eurosystem projection exercise and covering the current and two forthcoming years. Some of the publications also include an in-depth analysis of the results, along with focus articles on topics of interest.

  • These macroeconomic projections have been prepared in a highly uncertain international business environment, dominated by successive announcements concerning US tariffs. They were finalised on 21 May, on the assumption in the central scenario that tariffs would remain at their current level of 10% and that they would not be raised at the end of the 90-day suspension period ordered by the US administration.
  • After rising by 0.1% in the first quarter of 2025, GDP is expected to grow at a moderate pace in the first half of the year, before accelerating slightly in the second half of the year to an annual average of 0.6% in 2025 (after increasing by 1.1% in 2024). In 2025, activity should be buoyed by domestic demand, while foreign trade will weigh negatively on growth. Growth is expected to strengthen to 1.0% in 2026, and to 1.2% in 2027, as consumption and private investment recover, followed by exports.
  • Employment should remain resilient, with a limited increase in the unemployment rate, combined with a smaller catch-up in past productivity losses. The financial situation of households (purchasing power) and businesses (margin rate) is expected to remain broadly sound, to the detriment of public finances.
  • The outlook for consumer price inflation has been revised downwards. After 2.3% in 2024, headline inflation (HICP – Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices) is expected to flatline in 2025 at 1.0% due to a sharp decline in energy prices, while inflation excluding energy and food – including service prices – is expected to fall to 1.9%. The normalisation of energy prices is then expected to push headline inflation back up to 1.4% in 2026, and to 1.8% in 2027, still below the 2% threshold. Inflation excluding energy and food should continue to decline to 1.7% in 2026 and 1.6% in 2027, reflecting slower wage growth and exchange rate appreciation. 
  • Despite a reduction in the government deficit to below 5% of GDP in 2026 and in 2027, the public debt-to-GDP ratio is expected to continue rising towards 120% of GDP by the end of 2027 and to diverge from the euro area average.
  • Uncertainty surrounding the growth forecast is generally on the downside, in a context dominated by a very high level of uncertainty over US trade policy.

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Updated on the 12th of June 2025

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