Macroeconomic projections
Economic conditions

Macroeconomic interim projections – September 2025

Published on the 15th of September 2025

Mosaïques d'hexagones avec avec en fond des symboles de réseau et d'analyse

In order to contribute to the national and European economic debate, the Banque de France periodically publishes macroeconomic forecasts for France, constructed as part of the Eurosystem projection exercise and covering the current and two forthcoming years. Some of the publications also include an in-depth analysis of the results, along with focus articles on topics of interest.

  • These interim projections incorporate the trade agreement concluded between the United States and the European Union on 27 July last. Average tariffs on French exports to the United States are expected to remain close to the assumption used in the June projections (i.e. 12%, compared with 2% before the increases decided upon by the US administration): in the case of France, the exemptions allowed to certain sectors (particularly aeronautics) offset the additional increases for other goods.
     
  • However, in a more uncertain national context following the vote of no confidence in the French government, the projections are based on an unchanged fiscal policy assumption compared to June, which would result in a deficit of 5.4% of GDP in 2025, and a primary structural adjustment of 0.6% of GDP in 2026 and 0.4% in 2027. Less fiscal consolidation should not however lead to additional growth, as the prolonged fiscal uncertainty could lead to a more wait-and-see attitude on the part of households and businesses.
     
  • Growth should come in at 0.7% for the year as a whole. It should then increase moderately to 0.9% in 2026, and to 1.1% in 2027, underpinned by stronger household consumption and a recovery in private investment, while the contribution of foreign trade is expected to be virtually nil over these two years. Compared with our June projections, growth has therefore been revised slightly upwards for 2025, but downwards for 2026 and 2027. The upward revision for 2025 is due to stronger growth carry-over for the first half of the year and better expected performance in the third quarter, based on our latest economic survey (+0.3%). The downward revisions for 2026 and 2027 are attributable to the more uncertain domestic business environment and more unfavourable assumptions concerning the international environment, notably due to a higher euro exchange rate and oil price, as well as weaker external demand.
     
  • After averaging 2.3% in 2024, headline inflation is expected to remain below 2% throughout the projection horizon at one of the lowest rates in the euro area. As forecast in June it should initially fall markedly to 1.0% in 2025, due to lower energy prices and moderating services inflation, before rising again in 2026 and 2027 to 1.3% and 1.8%, respectively. Inflation excluding energy and food should continue to fall, to 1.7% in 2025 (after 2.3% in 2024), and to 1.6% in 2026 and 2027. As wage growth outpaces price increases, the annual growth in the purchasing power of wages of approximately 1% should underpin a recovery in household consumption.
     
  • Unemployment is expected to remain close to its current rate of 7.5%.

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Updated on the 15th of September 2025

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