Macroeconomic interim projections – March 2026

Published on 26th of March 2026

In order to contribute to the national and European economic debate, the Banque de France periodically publishes macroeconomic forecasts for France, constructed as part of the Eurosystem projection exercise and covering the current and two forthcoming years. Some of the publications also include an in-depth analysis of the results, along with focus articles on topics of interest.

These interim projections were finalised amid considerable uncertainty following the outbreak of the conflict in the Middle East on 28 February. We therefore present several scenarios that are consistent with those of the Eurosystem. The baseline scenario is based on assumptions derived from the futures markets as at 11 March 2026; the surge in hydrocarbon prices should be only temporary, which would correspond to a relatively swift resolution to the conflict. Since then, the geopolitical situation has been highly unstable and energy prices have increased, while remaining extremely volatile. We therefore present two more adverse scenarios, with stronger and more lasting rises in hydrocarbon prices.
In the baseline scenario, GDP growth is expected to come in at 0.9% in 2026. This figure is revised slightly downwards compared with our December projections. Economic activity proved to be more resilient than expected at the end of 2025, and is expected to remain so in the first quarter of 2026, based on the latest available business surveys, but the rise in energy prices and the deterioration in the geopolitical context are then likely to weigh on the French economy. GDP growth is forecast to be 0.8% in 2027 but is expected to pick up again in 2028, reaching 1.2%, driven by a rebound in exports and private domestic demand. In 2027 and 2028, domestic demand should be bolstered by household consumption, underpinned by the purchasing power of wages, and by a recovery in business investment.
Still in this baseline scenario, after averaging 0.9% in 2025, inflation is expected to rise to 1.7% in 2026, driven by energy prices. It should fall temporarily to 1.4% in 2027, against a backdrop of easing energy prices. It should rise again to 1.6% in 2028, as a result in particular of services inflation.
Under both adverse scenarios – but without incorporating an appropriate monetary policy response – HICP (Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices) inflation would be revised sharply upwards in 2026: it would reach 3.3% under the severe scenario. Annual GDP growth in 2026 would be weaker but remain positive. Inflation would start to normalise and growth would start to pick up in 2027, albeit more slowly under the severe scenario, and this trend would be confirmed in 2028.

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Macroeconomic interim projections – March 2026

Updated on the 26th of March 2026