Inflation Expectations - 2025-Q3
Published on the 18th of September 2025
statistics
French business leaders expect the rate of inflation to remain anchored at 2% over the next three to five years
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Business perception and expectations of inflation in France (consumer prices)
Our quarterly survey of inflation expectations (here defined as the increase in the consumer prices index - CPI), which is a module of the Banque de France's Business Survey, was carried out from 27 august to 3 september.
In the third quarter 2025, the median of business leaders' perception of inflation reached 2.0%, while the rise in the consumer price index (CPI), stood at 0.9% in August, and the harmonised index of consumer prices (HICP), was at 0.8% in August. Their median one-year inflation expectation mirrored their medium-term (three-to-five-year horizon) expectation at 2%, in line with the price stability objective.
In the third quarter 2025, the median of business leaders' perception of inflation reached 2.0%, while the rise in the consumer price index (CPI), stood at 0.9% in August, and the harmonised index of consumer prices (HICP), was at 0.8% in August. Their median one-year inflation expectation mirrored their medium-term (three-to-five-year horizon) expectation at 2%, in line with the price stability objective.
Table 1: Business perceptions and expectations of the annual inflation rate (median, %)
| Q4 2024 | Q1 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q3 2025 | ||
| Current Perceived Inflation | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | |
| 1 year forward inflation expectations | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | |
| 3-5 years forward inflation expectations | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 |
In the third quarter of 2025, median perceived inflation was stable at 2%, again reflecting the one-year and medium-term (3-5 years) expectations. However, the distribution of business leaders' responses for the three-to-five-year horizon shifted towards higher expectations: the share of respondents expecting inflation of 3% or more was up 9 percentage points on the previous quarter at 32%.
Chart 1: Change in annual inflation rate perceptions and expectations (median, %)
Chart 2: Distribution of three to five-year inflation expectations (%)
% of responses
3-5 year forward inflation expectations (%)
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Base wage growth expected by business leaders
Base wage growth expected by business leaders
In the third quarter of 2025, business leaders expected the median base wage to grow by 2% in their firms over the next year, which has remained unchanged over the past four quarters. The "2%" option continued to generally be the most selected, accounting for 35% of responses, up 4 percentage points compared with the previous quarter.
Chart 3: Change in one-year basic wage expectation (median, %)
Chart 4: Distribution of one-year expectations of base wage increases (%)
% of responses
One year expected wages increase (%)
Methodology
This survey was carried out between 27 august to 3 septembre on a representative sample of 1,700 business leaders. The survey covers three major market sectors of the economy and firms of all sizes from every region of metropolitan France. The opinions of business leaders are obtained by telephone during the monthly interview conducted for the Monthly Business Survey and each business leader is questioned only once a year with regard to this module. Business leaders are asked four questions:
1 - As a percentage, what, in your opinion, is the actual rate of inflation in France?
2 - As a percentage, what, in your opinion, will the rate of inflation be in one year in France?
3 - As a percentage, what, in your opinion, will the rate of inflation be in three to five years in France?
4 - As a percentage, how, in your opinion, will the base wage (before tax, excluding bonuses) change in your firm over the coming 12 months?
Note that the base wage corresponds to gross salary before the deduction of social security contributions and payment of social security benefits. Bonuses and overtime are not included.
The data are trimmed at the 99th centile. To calculate the results, the replies are weighted based on the average number of employees and the relative importance of each firm within its sector, then by the respective weights of the professional branches in terms of value added at the aggregate level.
1 - As a percentage, what, in your opinion, is the actual rate of inflation in France?
2 - As a percentage, what, in your opinion, will the rate of inflation be in one year in France?
3 - As a percentage, what, in your opinion, will the rate of inflation be in three to five years in France?
4 - As a percentage, how, in your opinion, will the base wage (before tax, excluding bonuses) change in your firm over the coming 12 months?
Note that the base wage corresponds to gross salary before the deduction of social security contributions and payment of social security benefits. Bonuses and overtime are not included.
The data are trimmed at the 99th centile. To calculate the results, the replies are weighted based on the average number of employees and the relative importance of each firm within its sector, then by the respective weights of the professional branches in terms of value added at the aggregate level.
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Updated on the 18th of September 2025