Poverty Regulation and Poverty Dynamics: A Textual and Econometric Analysis
Working Paper Series no. 1041. This article aims to identify and quantify regulations designed to combat poverty, and to assess their effectiveness. Using textual analysis techniques, we systematically classify and quantify, for the first time, all measures adopted in Spain among the 175,204 regulations issued by the Central Administration and the Autonomous Regions between 2007 and 2021. At both levels of government, we distinguish between targeted poverty-related regulations, such as those addressing energy poverty or child poverty, and broader poverty-related regulations, including those focused on precariousness, social assistance, or social exclusion. Furthermore, through multivariate regression analysis, we evaluate whether these regulatory frameworks have had a significant impact on regional risk-of-poverty rates. Our findings indicate that the effectiveness of both targeted and general regulatory measures depends on the level of government responsible for their implementation. Specifically, targeted measures are effective in reducing poverty risk when enacted at the regional level, but not when implemented by the central government. In contrast, broader regulatory measures prove to be effective tools for mitigating poverty when adopted at the national level, rather than by regional authorities. This study contributes to enhancing public sector accountability in Spain and provides valuable insights for refining future policymaking to achieve greater social impact.
Evolution of national and regional poverty related regulations in Spain
Non-Technical Summary
This study makes a novel contribution by constructing a comprehensive and original database of poverty-related regulations in Spain. Using textual analysis techniques, we systematically identify and classify over 175,000 legal texts issued by both the central government and regional administrations between 2007 and 2021. From this universe of norms, we extract and categorize more than 7,800 regulatory texts specifically aimed at addressing poverty, distinguishing between broad measures (e.g., social exclusion, social protection, precariousness) and targeted interventions (e.g., child poverty, energy poverty).
Building on this database, the study examines whether changes in poverty-related regulation intensity are associated with changes in regional at-risk-of-poverty rates. The at-risk-of-poverty rate is the share of people living below a standard poverty threshold. Despite the term “risk”, it does not refer to a forecast of future poverty, but to a current low-income indicator. Because the econometric analysis is estimated in first differences, the results should be interpreted in year-to-year terms. In other words, the study focuses on whether increases in regulation are associated with increases or decreases in the poverty rate over time, rather than on whether regions with more regulation have higher or lower poverty levels.
The results show that this association varies significantly depending on the type of regulation and the level of government responsible for its implementation.
- Targeted regulations seem to be more strongly associated with improvements when implemented at the regional level. Increases in regional measures addressing child poverty and energy poverty are associated with year-to-year declines in the at-risk-of-poverty rate.
- National regulations on social protection are also significantly associated with reductions in the at-risk-of-poverty rate, suggesting that broad regulatory frameworks play an important role when adopted at the national level.
- By contrast, increases in national-level targeted regulations are associated with less favorable changes in poverty outcomes. One possible interpretation is that these measures are often less adapted to local socio-economic conditions and may not fully address the specific needs of vulnerable populations across regions.
These findings highlight the importance of aligning regulatory design with the institutional context. Regional governments are better positioned to tailor targeted interventions to local needs, while broad regulatory frameworks benefit from national coordination and coherence. The study also emphasizes the need for evidence-based policymaking and regulatory impact assessments. Poorly coordinated or overly complex regulations can increase uncertainty and compliance costs, undermining their intended social impact. The insights of this research may be relevant for other countries with decentralized governance systems.
Keywords: Text Analysis, Regulation, Poverty, Energy Poverty, Child Poverty.
Codes JEL : I38, J18, K36
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Updated on the 10th of April 2026