Hedge funds, however, hold net short positions in futures contracts (Chart 3). These Bitcoin futures sales do not imply that expectations are bearish, but are instead the result of arbitrage strategies between the Bitcoin spot market for ETFs and the futures market. There is a price difference between Bitcoin ETFs and futures contracts – futures prices are generally higher than spot prices – which is referred to as the “basis”. The basis varies between 0.3% and 0.8% for a one-month futures contract (or between 5% and 12%, annualised) and hedge funds exploit this by taking short futures positions and hedging them with long spot positions in Bitcoin ETF shares. They thereby make a profit when this price difference narrows at the futures contracts’ maturity. The advantage for hedge funds of using Bitcoin ETFs rather than trading in Bitcoins is mainly that ETFs are more liquid and subject to lower transaction costs.
Potentially systemic players are positioning themselves as intermediaries in the market
The custody of crypto-assets underlying crypto-ETFs is generally carried out by third parties and is highly concentrated around a few major players, such as Coinbase, which acts as custodian of 80% of the crypto-assets underlying the main ETFs. Such concentration presents a systemic risk in the event of a cyberattack or bankruptcy, which could erode confidence and raise questions about the security of investors' assets. This risk was underlined by the collapse of the FTX platform in 2022.
Institutional investors’ crypto-ETF investments are creating new contagion channels that could threaten the traditional financial system, as these new products could transmit the high volatility of crypto-assets to financial markets. Moreover, ETFs are only traded during US stock market hours. Outside these hours, they cannot hedge against high volatility, creating liquidity asymmetry and liquidity risk for issuers.