ECB publishes new wage tracker indicators

The European Central Bank (ECB) has published four new wage tracker indicators for the aggregate of seven participating euro area countries on the ECB Data Portal.

The headline ECB wage tracker measures negotiated wage growth with smoothed one-off payments in the euro area. It currently points to strong negotiated wage growth of 4.7% in 2024 (based on an average coverage of 47.4% of employees in participating countries), easing to 3.2% in 2025 (based on an average coverage of 32%). In monthly terms, this indicator is expected to peak at 5.4% at the end of 2024, the highest value recorded since the series began in January 2013.

The ECB wage tracker with unsmoothed one-off payments indicates an average negotiated wage growth level of 4.8% in 2024, which eases to 2.7% in 2025. The underlying negotiated wage pressures measured by this indicator are the same as those measured by the headline wage tracker, albeit with greater volatility due to the size and frequency of one-off payments. The wage tracker excluding oneoff payments is expected to stand at 4.2% in 2024 and to gradually decrease to 3.8% in 2025.