According to the business leaders who take part in our monthly survey (approximately 8,500 companies and establishments questioned between 27 August and 3 September), activity continued to grow in August.
There were contrasting performances in industrial production, but it continued to rise overall, driven by aeronautics and equipment goods. In market services, activity rose moderately, especially in services linked to the summer holidays (accommodation and food services, etc.) compared with August in previous years. Construction activity grew more than anticipated by business leaders in the previous month’s survey.
With the end of August marked by announcements of a vote of confidence and possible days of industrial action, business leaders highlighted a sharp rise in uncertainty, particularly in construction which is highly sensitive to public policy.
Their expectations for September reflect a greater degree of caution, but activity is not expected to contract and is even seen improving in market services.
In August, selling prices were deemed stable in all sectors due to competition in domestic and international markets. Most industrial sectors were affected by the rise in US trade tariffs, but there was no significant deterioration over the month. Winemaking remained the worst-affected sector, but fewer and fewer firms say they are feeling any indirect effects, especially in market services. Supply difficulties eased, particularly in aeronautics, while recruitment difficulties remained stable, affecting 19% of firms.
Based on the survey results as well as other indicators, we estimate that activity will continue to grow at a similar pace to the previous quarter, rising by around 0.3% in the third quarter.
