According to the business leaders surveyed (approximately 8,500 companies and establishments questioned between 20 December and 7 January), activity changed little in December in industry and construction, and continued to grow in market services. In January, business leaders expect activity to grow in industry and to a lesser extent in construction, while slowing down in market services. Overall, order books are deemed to be weak in all industrial sectors except aeronautics. They have also declined in construction.
Our uncertainty indicator based on comments from companies remains high in the three main sectors. Responses highlight the current political uncertainty over economic and tax policies.
According to business leaders in industry, selling prices continued to moderate, close to their pre-Covid rates, despite a slight rise in raw material prices. Recruitment difficulties decreased slightly in industry, market services and construction.
On the basis of the survey results, supplemented by other indicators, as was the case last month, we expect underlying growth to continue to trend slightly upwards in the fourth quarter. This would result in GDP remaining stable on the previous quarter, due to the negative counter effects of the Olympic and Paralympic games, estimated to be –0.2 percentage points of GDP.
