According to the business leaders surveyed (approximately 8,500 companies and establishments questioned between 28 January 2024 and 4 February 2026), activity in January strengthened across the three sectors – industry, market services and construction – at a faster pace than business leaders had forecast in December. Industrial activity exceeded the long-term average for the eighth consecutive month, especially for computer, electronic and optical products, machinery and equipment, and other industrial products, where activity is driven by the defence and aerospace sectors.
In February, business leaders expect a sustained increase in industrial activity and a more moderate increase in services and construction.
Our monthly uncertainty indicator continued to decline in services and construction, but remained at a high level. It even rose very slightly in industry, in line with the uncertain international climate and persistent geopolitical and trade tensions.
The cash position was deemed to be slightly below normal in industry, but improved in services, albeit with significant variations between sectors. Supply difficulties in industry, which were generally stable, became somewhat more pronounced in aeronautics and computer, electronic and optical products. Selling prices rose moderately across the three main sectors.
Recruitment difficulties increased, affecting 17% of businesses overall and 23% of companies in the construction sector.
Based on the survey results as well as other indicators, we estimate that GDP in the first quarter of 2026 should increase slightly by between 0.2% and 0.3%. Naturally, this estimate, calculated at the end of the first month of the quarter, remains highly provisional.
