According to the business leaders surveyed (approximately 8,500 companies or establishments questioned between 26 November and 3 December), activity continued to grow in November, with a more marked increase in industry, above its long‑term average for the sixth consecutive month, and more significantly than expected last month. This growth was mainly driven by an acceleration in computer, electronic and optical products, with a rebound in the agri‑food and automotive sectors.
In December, business leaders expect activity to continue to grow in industry albeit at a slower pace, with little change in services and construction. Overall, order books in industry remained weak, but improved in the construction sector.
Corporate cash positions appeared broadly balanced, both in industry and in services.
Our monthly uncertainty indicator, which is based on a textual analysis of comments from the companies surveyed, fell significantly in all three sectors, but remained high, mainly due to the domestic political situation.
Supply difficulties in industry remained modest (8% of companies), except in transport equipment and machinery and equipment. Selling prices were stable in industry, continuing to decline in construction and ticking up in services. Recruitment difficulties, reported by 16% of companies, eased, particularly in the service sector.
Based on the survey results as well as other indicators, we estimate that GDP should increase slightly during the fourth quarter by around 0.2%.
