Macroeconomic projections - September 2023

The Banque de France publishes its macroeconomic projections.

Inflation should continue to subside, falling to 4.5% in the fourth quarter of 2023 and returning to around 2% by 2025.

GDP growth should be more resilient than expected in 2023 (+0.9%) but this should be followed by a more gradual recovery in 2024 (+0.9%) and 2025 (+1.3%).

Purchasing power per capita should rise in average terms (+0.6% in 2023, +0.7% in 2024 and +0.5% in 2025) thanks to a recovery in real wages.

The unemployment rate should gradually rise, reaching 7.8% in 2025.

Businesses are expected to remain resilient, with profit margins slightly above pre-Covid levels.

In September, the Banque de France published its macroeconomic projections for 2023 to 2025.