The European Central Bank (ECB) wage tracker, which only covers active collective bargaining agreements, indicates negotiated wage growth with smoothed one-off payments of 4.7% in 2024 (based on an average coverage of 48.8% of employees in participating countries), and 3.1% in 2025 (based on an average coverage of 47.4%). The ECB wage tracker with unsmoothed one-off payments indicates an average negotiated wage growth level of 4.9% in 2024 and 2.9% in 2025. The downward trend of the forward-looking wage tracker for the remainder of 2025 partly reflects the mechanical impact of large one-off payments (that were paid in 2024 but drop out in 2025) and the front-loaded nature of wage increases in some sectors in 2024. The wage tracker excluding one-off payments indicates growth of 4.2% in 2024 and 3.8% in 2025. See Chart 1 and Table 1 for further details.
The ECB wage tracker may be subject to revisions, and the forward-looking part should not be interpreted as a forecast, as it only captures the information that is available for the active collective bargaining agreements. It should also be noted that the ECB wage tracker does not track the indicator of negotiated wage growth precisely and therefore deviations are to be expected over time.
For a more comprehensive assessment of wage developments in the euro area, please refer to the June 2025 Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area, which indicate a yearly growth rate of compensation per employee in the euro area of 3.2% in 2025, with a quarterly profile of 3.5% in the first quarter, 3.4% in the second quarter, 3.1% in Q3 in the third quarter, and of 2.8% in the fourth quarter.