The European Central Bank (ECB) wage tracker, which covers active collective bargaining agreements, indicates negotiated wage growth with smoothed one-off payments of 3.2% in 2025 (based on a coverage of 50.7% of employees in participating countries) and 2.3% in 2026 (based on a coverage of 39.7%). Coverage gradually declines over the forward-looking horizon as agreements are still being signed in 2026.
Compared with the February 2026 data release, the ECB wage tracker with smoothed one-off payments has been revised down by 0.1 percentage points for 2026. The ECB wage tracker with unsmoothed one-off payments indicates negotiated wage growth of 3.0% in 2025 and 2.6% in 2026 (down by 0.1 percentage points for 2026). The wage tracker excluding one-off payments indicates an easing of negotiated wage growth from 3.9% in 2025 to 2.6% in 2026 (down by 0.1 percentage points for 2026).
The headline ECB wage tracker is better suited to describing quarterly or monthly dynamics in negotiated wages as it smooths one-off payments over time. Meanwhile, the ECB wage tracker with unsmoothed one-off payments is better suited to describing yearly dynamics.
For 2026 the headline ECB wage tracker averages 1.9% in the first quarter, 2.1% in the second quarter, 2.5% in the third quarter and 2.6% in the fourth quarter. The increase over the course of the year mainly reflects statistical effects related to the treatment of earlier one-off payments rather than new wage pressures. These mechanical effects are expected to virtually disappear in the headline indicator as the year progresses.
