ECB Consumer Expectations Survey results – March 2024

Inflation

The median rate of perceived inflation over the previous 12 months decreased further, for the sixth consecutive month, to 5.0%, from 5.5% in February. Median expectations for inflation over the next 12 months also edged down, to 3.0% from 3.1%. They are now at their lowest level since December 2021. Median expectations for inflation three years ahead remained unchanged at 2.5% for the fourth consecutive month. Inflation expectations at the one-year and three-year horizons remained well below the perceived past inflation rate. Uncertainty about inflation expectations over the next 12 months edged down and is now at its lowest level since the start of Russia’s unjustified war against Ukraine in February 2022. Developments in inflation perceptions and expectations remained relatively closely aligned across income groups, albeit somewhat higher for the two lowest income quintiles. Younger respondents (aged 18-34) continued to report lower inflation perceptions and expectations than older respondents (those aged 35-54 and those aged 55-70). (Inflation results)