ECB Consumer Expectations Survey results – June 2025

Compared with May 2025:

  • median consumer perceptions of inflation over the previous 12 months remained unchanged, as did median expectations for inflation three and five years ahead, while median inflation expectations for one year ahead decreased;
  • expectations for nominal income growth over the next 12 months remained unchanged, while expectations for spending growth over the next 12 months decreased;
  • expectations for economic growth over the next 12 months became less negative, while the expected unemployment rate in 12 months’ time decreased;
  • expectations for growth in the price of homes over the next 12 months decreased slightly, as did expectations for mortgage interest rates 12 months ahead.

Published on the 29th of July 2025

Inflation

In June, the median rate of perceived inflation over the previous 12 months remained unchanged at 3.1% for the fifth consecutive month, its lowest level since September 2021. Meanwhile, median expectations for inflation over the next 12 months decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 2.6%, meaning that the increases observed in March and April were fully reversed in May and June. Expectations for three years ahead were unchanged at 2.4%, while expectations for inflation five years ahead held steady at 2.1% for the seventh consecutive month. Uncertainty about inflation expectations over the next 12 months was unchanged in June. Broadly, the evolution of inflation perceptions and expectations followed similar trends across income groups. However, over the previous year and a half lower income quintiles reported slightly higher inflation perceptions and short-horizon expectations than higher income quintiles. Younger respondents (aged 18-34) continued to report lower inflation perceptions and expectations than older respondents (aged 35-54 and 55-70), although the gap was narrower than in previous years. Inflation results 

Income and consumption

Consumers’ expectations for nominal income growth over the next 12 months remained unchanged at 1.0% in June. However, this apparent stability conceals a decline in expectations among higher income individuals, offset by an increase in expectations among lower income groups. Perceived nominal spending growth over the previous 12 months held steady at 5.0% in June. In contrast, expected nominal spending growth over the next 12 months decreased further to 3.2% in June, from 3.5% in May and 3.7% in April. This decline reflects the heightened economic uncertainty of recent months as well as lower expected inflation. Income and consumption results

Updated on the 29th of July 2025