ECB Consumer Expectations Survey results – July 2025

Inflation

In July, the median rate of perceived inflation over the previous 12 months remained unchanged at 3.1% for the sixth consecutive month. Median expectations for inflation over the next 12 months were unchanged at 2.6%. Expectations for three years ahead increased to 2.5%, from 2.4% in June. Expectations for inflation five years ahead were unchanged at 2.1% for the eighth consecutive month. Uncertainty about inflation expectations over the next 12 months remained at its lowest level since January 2022. Lower income quintiles continued to report on average slightly higher inflation perceptions and short-horizon expectations than higher income quintiles, a trend observed since 2023. However, the broad evolution of inflation perceptions and expectations remained relatively closely aligned across income groups. Younger respondents (aged 18-34) continued to report lower inflation perceptions and expectations than older respondents (aged 35-54 and 55-70), albeit to a lesser degree than in previous years. Inflation results