ECB Consumer Expectations Survey results – July 2024

Compared with June 2024:

  • median consumer inflation perceptions over the previous 12 months declined noticeably, while median inflation expectations for the next 12 months remained unchanged and those for three years ahead edged up;
  • expectations for nominal income over the next 12 months and spending growth over the next 12 months decreased;
  • expectations for economic growth over the next 12 months became more negative, while the expected unemployment rate in 12 months’ time remained unchanged;
  • expectations for growth in the price of homes over the next 12 months decreased slightly, while expectations for mortgage interest rates 12 months ahead remained unchanged.
     

Published on 26 August 2024

Inflation

The median rate of perceived inflation over the previous 12 months declined noticeably in July to 4.1%, from 4.5% in June. Meanwhile, inflation expectations at the one-year and three-year horizons remained below the perceived past inflation rate. Median expectations for inflation over the next 12 months remained unchanged at 2.8% for the third consecutive month, having fallen in May to their lowest level since September 2021. Median expectations for inflation three years ahead edged up by 0.1 percentage points in July to 2.4%. Uncertainty about inflation expectations over the next 12 months remained unchanged at its lowest level since February 2022, when Russia invaded Ukraine. Developments in inflation perceptions and expectations remained relatively closely aligned across income groups. Younger respondents (aged 18-34) continued to report lower inflation perceptions and expectations than older respondents (those aged 35-54 and those aged 55-70). (Inflation results)

Download the full publication

ECB Consumer Expectations Survey results... (PDF - 312 Ko)

Updated on 26 August 2024