ECB Consumer Expectations Survey results – January 2025

Inflation

The median rate of perceived inflation over the previous 12 months decreased slightly in January to 3.4%, from 3.5% in December. Median expectations for inflation over the next 12 months also decreased, to 2.6% from 2.8%. In both instances, these decreases reversed the increases observed in the December 2024 data. Median expectations for inflation three years ahead were unchanged at 2.4% in January 2025. Inflation expectations at the one-year and three-year horizons thus remained below the perceived past inflation rate. Uncertainty about inflation expectations over the next 12 months remained unchanged, for the sixth month in a row, at its lowest level since February 2022. While the broad evolution of inflation perceptions and expectations remained relatively closely aligned across income groups, expectations for lower income quintiles were slightly above those for higher income quintiles. Younger respondents (aged 18-34) continued to report lower inflation perceptions and expectations than older respondents (those aged 35-54 and 55-70), albeit to a lesser degree than in previous years. (Inflation results)