According to the business leaders participating in our survey (approximately 8,500 companies and establishments questioned between 28 April and 6 May), activity increased more moderately in April in industry and construction, and remained stable in market services.
In industry, production still rose at a marked pace, exceeding its long-term average growth as well as last month’s forecasts by business leaders. Growth remained robust in electrical equipment and aeronautics, fuelled by the defence sector, while computer, electronics and optical products also maintained momentum.
In May, business leaders expect activity to remain broadly stable, with slight falls in industry and construction and a more marked decline in services – the first since March 2025. Following the initial shock of the outbreak of war in the Middle East, the uncertainty indicator based on a textual analysis of comments by surveyed firms – eased slightly in April but remains elevated in all three sectors. Business leaders continue to voice concerns about raw material prices and logistical disruptions.
Cash positions were considered close to normal in industry, but were reported to have deteriorated in services. Several sectors (aeronautics, electrical equipment, chemicals, and computer, electronic and optical products) indicated that supply difficulties had intensified. Recruitment difficulties remain broadly stable.
Growth in raw material prices accelerated, although it remains slower than in 2022. In a highly competitive environment, industrial and construction firms are only partially passing these increases through to selling prices. Nevertheless, the latter are expected to continue rising in May. In services, price revisions are mainly concentrated in transportation and storage activities, which are directly exposed to higher diesel prices.
Overall, while the French economy remains resilient, it is starting to show signs of a slowdown, reflecting the first effects of higher hydrocarbon prices. However, due to the limited information available at the start of the quarter and the uncertainty surrounding the duration and scale of the Middle East conflict, it is still too early to provide an estimate for second quarter GDP growth.
