According to the business leaders surveyed (approximately 8,500 companies and establishments questioned between 26 February and 5 March), activity in February grew in industry but changed little in market services and construction. In March, business leaders expect activity to remain stable in industry and construction, and to increase slightly in market services. Order books continue to be deemed weak across all industrial sectors, with the exception of aeronautics. The cash position is no longer deemed weak in industry or in market services.
Our uncertainty indicator based on comments from companies has eased somewhat in market services, particularly in construction, following the enactment of the budget for 2025.
Business leaders are now mainly concerned with the potential effects of the tariff hikes announced by the United States.
Increases in both raw materials and selling prices continue to be considered moderate in industry. Quote prices in the construction sector were reported to be down slightly. Services prices continued to return to normal levels and recruitment difficulties to gradually subside.
Based on the survey results as well as other indicators, we reiterate our estimate of a slight increase in GDP of between 0.1% and 0.2% in the first quarter of 2025.
