According to the business leaders surveyed (approximately 8,500 companies and establishments questioned between 27 November and 4 December), activity rose in November in market services and changed very little in industry and construction. In December, business leaders expect activity to continue to grow moderately in market services, while contracting slightly in industry and more sharply in construction. Overall, order books remained weak, and this was the case in all industrial sectors except aeronautics.
Our uncertainty indicator is based on comments from the companies in the three sectors. It reached its highest level for two years in industry and construction, with the responses highlighting in particular the uncertainty of the domestic political climate.
Selling prices continued to moderate, despite a slight rise in raw material prices, according to business leaders.
Recruitment difficulties remained almost unchanged, affecting 32% of companies across all sectors, after 31% in October.
On the basis of the survey results, supplemented by other indicators, we expect underlying growth to continue to trend slightly upwards in the fourth quarter. This would suggest GDP remaining stable compared with the previous quarter, taking into account the impact of the Olympic and Paralympic Games (estimated at 0.2 percentage point of GDP).
