Macroeconomic projections – June 2026

Published on 17th of June 2026

In order to contribute to the national and European economic debate, the Banque de France periodically publishes macroeconomic forecasts for France, constructed as part of the Eurosystem projection exercise and covering the current and two forthcoming years. Some of the publications also include an in-depth analysis of the results, along with focus articles on topics of interest.

These projections were prepared amidst considerable uncertainty dominated by the ongoing conflict in the Middle East that began on 28 February. They do not take account of the announcement on 14 June regarding the possible signing of a framework agreement between the United States and Iran. In this shifting context, we present several scenarios that are consistent with those published by the European Central Bank (ECB) for the Eurosystem on 11 June.
Our baseline scenario is based on assumptions taken from the futures markets as at 21 May 2026. According to market expectations, the surge in hydrocarbon prices should be only temporary, provided there is substantial progress in negotiations between Iran and the United States leading to the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and a complete cessation of hostilities this summer. We also present three other scenarios: a milder scenario, which is based on a faster and more marked fall in hydrocarbon prices, and two more adverse scenarios, reflecting more pessimistic market expectations regarding future trends in energy prices.
Under the baseline scenario, GDP should grow by 0.5% in 2026, revised downwards by 0.4 percentage point compared with our March projections. On the one hand, oil prices have risen by more than forecast under the March baseline scenario. But, more importantly, economic activity has proven less resilient than anticipated in the first quarter of 2026 and is expected to remain relatively sluggish in the second quarter, according to the most recent business surveys. Growth should subsequently rebound to 0.9% in 2027, and then to 1.2% in 2028, driven by a recovery in private domestic demand, particularly household consumption and business investment.
The outlook for consumer price inflation has been revised upwards by 0.8 percentage point in line with rising oil prices. Headline inflation (HICP, Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices) is forecast to reach 2.5% in 2026, pushed up by rising energy prices and their indirect effects, particularly on air travel due to higher costs for jet fuel, as well as on food prices, linked to expected increases in agricultural commodity and fertiliser prices. It should then fall to 1.7% in 2027 and 2028, as energy prices ease. Inflation excluding energy and food is expected to be 1.6% in 2026, rising to 2.1% in 2027, due to the delayed pass-through of energy price increases to industrial goods, as well as to wage increases, which are expected to feed through to service prices. It should fall to 1.8% in 2028.
Following a notable improvement in 2025, the government deficit is forecast to deteriorate slightly in 2026 in the absence of additional measures. Under the fiscal assumptions used for conventional purposes, it should only decline to a limited extent by the end of the projection horizon. The public debt ratio is forecast to continue to increase towards 122% of GDP by the end of 2028 and to diverge from the euro area average.
Two more adverse scenarios are presented, both based on the same interest rate assumptions as those in the baseline scenario. Under the most adverse scenario, HICP inflation is forecast to be 4.0% and 3.9% in 2026 and 2027, respectively, before normalising in 2028; GDP should stagnate in 2026 and 2027, before rebounding in 2028. We also present a milder scenario, close to the baseline scenario for 2026, but with a faster rebound in 2027.

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Macroeconomic projections – June 2026

Updated on the 17th of June 2026