According to the business leaders surveyed (approximately 8,500 companies and establishments questioned between 26 June and 3 July), activity in June picked up significantly in industry, market services and construction, after a month of May affected by holidays and closures associated with the number and timing of public holidays. In July, business leaders expect activity to continue to grow in industry and, to a lesser extent, in services. There is expected to be little growth in construction. Order books continued to be deemed weak across industry, with the exception of aeronautics, and in construction.
Our uncertainty indicator, based on comments from businesses, has fallen slightly in industry and construction, while rising slightly in services, albeit from a lower level. In industry, the impact of higher US tariffs on business volumes is mentioned particularly in certain segments of the agri-food sector (wine-making), wood-paper-printing, chemicals and capital goods manufacturers.
Within market services, companies specialising in engineering and technical analysis report the greatest impact.
Selling prices were deemed to be slightly higher in industry, while they were deemed unchanged in services and to have fallen in construction. Supply problems remain low overall, except in the aeronautics sector (where they are however tending to ease) and in the automotive sector. Recruitment difficulties remain unchanged, at 19%.
Based on the survey results, together with other indicators, we estimate that GDP should grow at the same pace in the second quarter of 2025 as in the previous quarter, by around 0.1%.
