The latest reading of the European Central Bank (ECB) wage tracker, which covers active collective bargaining agreements, indicates negotiated wage growth with smoothed one-off payments of 4.7% in 2024 (based on a coverage of 50.6% of employees in participating countries) and 3.2% in 2025 (based on a coverage of 48.7%). The wage tracker with unsmoothed one-off payments indicates negotiated wage growth of 4.9% in 2024 and 3.0% in 2025. The downward trend in the forward-looking wage tracker component partly reflects the mechanical impact of large one-off payments (that were made in 2024 but not in 2025) and the frontloaded nature of wage increases in some sectors in 2024. The wage tracker excluding one-off payments indicates growth of 4.2% in 2024 and 3.9% in 2025.
For the third quarter of 2026, the headline wage tracker stands at 2.2% (up from 1.8% in the first half of 2026), the wage tracker with unsmoothed one-off payments also stands at 2.2% (down from 2.5% in the first half of 2026), and the wage tracker excluding one-off payments stands at 2.4% (down from 2.6% in the first half of 2026). The employee coverage for the third quarter of 2026 stands at just 19.4%, compared with 31.0% for the first half of 2026 and 47.2% for the fourth quarter of 2025. See Chart 1 and Table 1 for further details.
Since the previous data release in September 2025, one-off payments for Belgium and Austria have been included and the forward-looking horizon has been extended to the end of September 2026.
Overall, the ECB wage tracker may be subject to revisions, and the forward-looking component should not be interpreted as a forecast, as it only captures the information that is available for active collective bargaining agreements. Moreover, the wage tracker does not follow the indicator of negotiated wage growth precisely and deviations are to be expected over time. For a more comprehensive assessment of wage developments in the euro area, please refer to the September 2025 ECB staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area, which indicate a yearly growth rate of compensation per employee in the euro area of 3.4% for 2025 and 2.7% for 2026.
The ECB publishes four wage tracker indicators for the aggregate of eight participating euro area countries on the ECB Data Portal. The data release following the December 2025 Governing Council will be published exceptionally on 19 December 2025.