New data release: ECB wage tracker points to stable negotiated wage pressures in 2026

The European Central Bank (ECB) wage tracker, which covers active collective bargaining agreements, indicates negotiated wage growth with smoothed one-off payments of 3.2% in 2025 (based on a coverage of 51.5% of employees in participating countries) and 2.3% in 2026 (based on a coverage of 43.2%).

Compared with the May 2026 data release, the ECB wage tracker with smoothed one-off payments is broadly unrevised for 2026. The ECB wage tracker with unsmoothed one-off payments indicates negotiated wage growth of 3.0% in 2025 and 2.6% in 2026. The wage tracker excluding one-off payments indicates an easing of negotiated wage growth from 3.8% in 2025 to 2.6% in 2026.

The headline ECB wage tracker is better suited to describing quarterly or monthly dynamics in negotiated wages, as it smooths one-off payments over time. Meanwhile, the ECB wage tracker with unsmoothed one-off payments is better suited to describing yearly dynamics.

For 2026 the headline ECB wage tracker averages 1.8% in the first quarter, 2.1% in the second quarter, and 2.6% in the third and fourth quarters. This increase over the course of the year reflects the fading mechanical downward effect of large one-off payments that were made in 2024 but not in 2025. This mechanical effect is expected to virtually disappear over the course of 2026 in the headline indicator.

The ECB wage tracker with unsmoothed one-off payments reflects a more stable outlook than in previous years for negotiated wage growth in 2026 (averaging 2.9% in the first quarter, 2.6% in the second quarter, and 2.5% in the third and fourth quarters). The wage tracker excluding one-off payments is expected to continue to hover around 2.6% in 2026 (averaging 2.7% in the first quarter and 2.6% for the remainder of the year), indicating more moderate dynamics in negotiated base wages than in recent years.

Employee coverage for 2026 stands at 46.4% in the first quarter of the year, 44.8% in the second quarter, 41.1% in the third quarter and 40.4% in the fourth quarter. See Chart 1 and Table 1 for further details.

The forward-looking horizon of the wage tracker remains unchanged up to December 2026. As new agreements are being signed and the coverage of contracts reaching beyond 2026 is gradually increasing, the forward-looking horizon of the wage tracker will be extended to the first quarter of 2027 in the July 2026 data release.

Overall, the ECB wage tracker may be subject to revision, and the forward-looking component should not be interpreted as a forecast, as it only captures information that is currently available for active collective bargaining agreements. Moreover, the ECB wage tracker does not track the indicator of negotiated wage growth precisely, and deviations are to be expected over time. For a more comprehensive assessment of wage developments in the euro area, please refer to the June 2026 Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area, which indicate a yearly growth rate of compensation per employee in the euro area of 3.2% in 2026.

The ECB publishes four wage tracker indicators for the aggregate of the nine participating euro area countries on the ECB Data Portal.