The European Central Bank (ECB) wage tracker, which only covers active collective bargaining agreements, indicates negotiated wage growth with smoothed one-off payments of 4.6% in 2024 (based on an average coverage of 49.6% of employees in participating countries) and 3.2% in 2025 (based on an average coverage of 47.0%). The ECB wage tracker with unsmoothed one-off payments indicates an average negotiated wage growth level of 4.8% in 2024 and 2.9% in 2025. The downward dynamics of the forward-looking wage tracker partly reflect the mechanical impact of large one-off payments (that were paid in 2024 but drop out in 2025) and the frontloaded nature of wage increases in some sectors in 2024. The wage tracker excluding one-off payments indicates growth of 4.1% in 2024 and 3.8% in 2025.
For the first quarter of 2026, the headline ECB wage tracker is at 1.7% (down from 1.8% in the fourth quarter of 2025 and 4.6% in the first quarter of 2025), the ECB wage tracker with unsmoothed one-off payments is at 2.5% (down from 3.0% in the fourth quarter of 2025 and at the same level as in the first quarter of 2025), and the ECB wage tracker excluding one-off payments is at 2.6% (down from 3.1% in the fourth quarter of 2025 and 4.4% in the first quarter of 2025). The employee coverage in the first quarter of 2026 is at 32.5% (decreasing from 45.3% in the previous quarter). The signals from the ECB wage tracker for the first quarter of 2026 are expected to become more complete as new wage agreements are signed. See Chart 1 and Table 1 for further details.
Since the previous data release in June 2025, the ECB wage tracker has been expanded to include collective agreements in Belgium (retroactively from January 2021 onwards). The forward-looking horizon has also been extended to the end of March 2026.