Inflation
The median rate of perceived inflation over the previous 12 months remained unchanged at 3.1% in March. This is its lowest level since September 2021. Median expectations for inflation over the next 12 months increased by 0.3 percentage points to 2.9%, the highest level since April 2024, while expectations for three years ahead edged up by 0.1 percentage points to 2.5%, the highest level since March 2024. Expectations for inflation five years ahead, which are being reported for the first time this month, were unchanged for the fourth consecutive month at 2.1%. For more information on this new measure of inflation expectations, please see the box entitled “Consumers’ long-term inflation expectations: an overview” in the Economic Bulletin, Issue 3, ECB, 2025. Inflation expectations at the one-year, three-year and five-year horizons thus remained below the perceived past inflation rate. Uncertainty about inflation expectations over the next 12 months remained unchanged in March at its lowest level since January 2022. While the broad evolution of inflation perceptions and expectations remained relatively closely aligned across income groups, over the previous year and a half inflation perceptions and short-horizon expectations for lower income quintiles were, on average, slightly above those for higher income quintiles. Younger respondents (aged 18-34) continued to report lower inflation perceptions and expectations than older respondents (those aged 35-54 and 55-70), albeit to a lesser degree than in previous years. (Inflation results)
Income and consumption
Consumers’ nominal income growth expectations over the next 12 months remained unchanged at 1.0%. Perceived nominal spending growth over the previous 12 months increased to 5.0%, from 4.9% in February. Expected nominal spending growth over the next 12 months decreased to 3.4% in March, from 3.5% in February and 3.6% in January. This decrease was observed across most income groups. (Income and consumption results)
Economic growth and labour market
Economic growth expectations for the next 12 months were stable in March, standing at -1.2%. Expectations for the unemployment rate 12 months ahead decreased to 10.4%, from 10.5% in February. Consumers continued to expect the future unemployment rate to be only slightly higher than the perceived current unemployment rate (10.0%), implying a broadly stable labour market. Expectations for both economic growth and the unemployment rate remained broadly stable over the previous four months, fluctuating within a narrow range. (Economic growth and labour market results)