According to the business leaders surveyed (approximately 8,500 companies and establishments questioned between 22 December and 7 January), activity continued to grow in December at a slightly slower pace than in November. Growth remained strong in industry, driven by aeronautics and defence-related sectors, and more moderate in market services, while activity remained largely unchanged in construction.
In January, industrial activity is expected to slow down, due to a pause in aeronautics production, limited visibility on order books and a high degree of uncertainty. Conversely, market services firms expect their activity to strengthen and grow at a rate closer to the average observed over the last decade. In construction, activity is expected to remain broadly unchanged, with the finishing works sector still outperforming the structural works sector.
Our monthly uncertainty indicator declined once again in the three main sectors but remained at high levels.
The cash position was deemed to be balanced overall, but this masks persistent disparities between sectors. Supply difficulties in industry remained at low levels, with the exception of aeronautics and sectors dependent on certain critical metals. Selling prices remained broadly stable in industry and trending downwards in construction, while price increases in services were still moderate.
Recruitment difficulties have stabilised but remained an issue in certain skilled trades and in construction.
Based on the survey results as well as other indicators, we estimate that GDP grew by at least 0.2% in the fourth quarter.
