Clifirium 2025 : Climate finance, risk and uncertainty modelling

Published on the 15th of January 2025

Séminaires
07 April 2025 - 14:00

Since the Paris Agreement in 2015, climate change progressively became a strategic issue for financial institutions, supervisors, and regulators. Compared with traditional academic problems in finance, factoring in climate change comes with addressing specific features that do not easily fit with usual quantitative approaches and necessitate new developments: long time horizons, unprecedented events, systemic patterns, chaotic dynamics, uncertainty, irreversibility, endogeneity, policy jumps, just to name a few. Such a conundrum provides the research community with a new impetus to foster transdisciplinary collaborations, through the various expertise and approaches coming from finance, economics, mathematics, numerical and climate sciences.

Committed to this endeavor, the Chair Stress Test, Risk management and Financial Steering, hosted by Ecole polytechnique and the Banque de France convene the third international workshop on climate finance, risk and uncertainty modelling (see the 2022 and 2023 editions).

For 3 days, the broad climate & finance research community will gather in Paris, to share progress related to the new questions posed by both practitioners and regulators, such as climate-related financial risk modelling, climate stress testing, or asset valuation.

Registration is open and closes on April 1st.

Registration is free but mandatory

Program - 7 april

  • 13h-13h50  Welcome coffee and security check
  • 13h50-14h00 Welcome address by Olivier Garnier (Banque de France) and Emmanuel Gobet (Ecole Polytechnique)

Session "Risk and environmental concerns"

Chairman: Stéphane Dees (Banque de France)

  • 14h-14h35  PolicyTransition Risk, Carbon Premiums, and Asset Prices - Rick van der Ploeg Policy (University of Oxford)
  • 14h35-15h10  Pricing Climate Risk - Christian Traeger (University of Oxford)
  • 15h10-15h45  Emission Impossible: Balancing Environmental Concerns and Inflation - Luca Taschini  (University of Edinburgh Business School)
  • Break (poster session)
  • Flash Talks (16h15-17h45)
  • Cocktail (17h45-18h45)

Program - 8 april
Session "Asset pricing and climate-risk"

Chairman: Emmanuel Gobet (Ecole Polytechnique)

  • 14h-14h35   Real Estate Portfolio Valuation with Machine Learning Methods using Geospatial and Macroeconomic Data - Natalie Packham (Berlin School of Economics and Law)
  • 14h35-15h10  A Model for the Impact of Climate Transition on Real Estate Prices -Jean-Francois Chassagneux (Ensae)
  • 15h10-15h45  Stress Discounting -  Aude Pommeret Université Savoie Mont Blanc)
  • Break (poster session)

Session "Macro-climate"

Chairman: Jean-Guillaume Sahuc (Banque de France)

  • 16h15-16h50  Climate Policies, Labor Markets, and Macroeconomic Outcomes in Emerging Economies -Victoria Nuger (ITAM)
  • 16h50-17h25   Macroeconomic Effects of Carbon Pricing: The Role of Bank Credit -  Givi Melkadze (Georgia State University)
  • 17h25-18h00   Transfers or Subsidies? Comparing Strategies for Energy Price Shocks - Nicolai Stahler (Deustche Bundesbank)
  • Dinner (19h30-22h30) (on invitation only)

Program - 9 april
Session "Uncertainty"

Chairman: Gauthier Vermandel (Ecole Polytechnique)

  • 14h-14h35  The Cost of ESG Rating Uncertainty - Elise Gourier (ESSEC)
  • 14h35-15h10  Climate Policy Uncertainty and Firms' and Investors' Behavior - Antoine Dechezlepretre (OECD)
  • 15h10-15h45 Uncertainty Quantification in Portfolio Temperature Alignment - From Bridging Data Gaps to Application in Portfolio Optimization - Martin Simon (Frankfurt University of Applied Sciences)
  • Break (poster session)

Session "Investment"

Chairman: Antoine Bezat (BNP Paribas)

  • 16h15-16h50  Random Carbon Tax Policy and Investment into Emission Abatement Technologies -  Rudiger Frey (Institute for Statistics and Mathematics)
  • 16h50-17h25 Financially Constrained Carbon Management - Francesca Zucchi (European Central Bank)
  • 17h25-18h00 Energy Beyond Emissions: What Does the Carbon Disclosure Project Reveal? - Anna Creti (Université de Dauphine)

ORGANIZING COMMITTEE: Josselin Garnier (Ecole polytechnique), Jean-Guillaume Sahuc (Banque de France), Marine Saux (Ecole polytechnique), Gauthier Vermandel (Ecole polytechnique)

SCIENTIFIC COMMITTEE: Antoine Bezat (BNPP Paribas), Emmanuel Gobet (Ecole polytechnique), Céline Guivarch (CIRED), Stephie Fried (San Francisco Fed), Jean-Guillaume Sahuc (Banque de France), Gauthier Vermandel (Ecole polytechnique)