Inflation Expectations - 2026-Q3
Published on 17th of September 2026
Business leaders' one-year inflation expectations fell to 4% and 3-5 year inflation expectations remained stable at 3%
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Business perception and expectations of inflation in France (consumer prices)
Our quarterly survey of inflation expectations (here defined as the increase in the consumer prices index - CPI), which is a module of the Banque de France's Business Survey, was carried out from 27th august to 3rd september.
In the third quarter of 2026, the median inflation rate as perceived by business leaders stood at 2.5%, up slightly by 0.2 percentage point compared with the previous quarter. This figure lies between the inflation rate measured in August by the Consumer Price Index (CPIat 2.4%) and the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICPat 2.6%). The median one-year inflation expectation stabilised at 2.5%, after rising in the previous quarter.
In the third quarter of 2026, the median inflation rate as perceived by business leaders stood at 2.5%, up slightly by 0.2 percentage point compared with the previous quarter. This figure lies between the inflation rate measured in August by the Consumer Price Index (CPIat 2.4%) and the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICPat 2.6%). The median one-year inflation expectation stabilised at 2.5%, after rising in the previous quarter.
Table 1: Business perceptions and expectations of the annual inflation rate (median, %)
| Q4 2025 | Q1 2026 | Q2 2026 | Q3 2026 | ||
| Current Perceived Inflation | 1.6 | 1.5 | 2.3 | 2.5 | |
| 1 year forward inflation expectations | 1.8 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 2.5 | |
| 3-5 years forward inflation expectations | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 |
In the third quarter 2026, the medium-term inflation (3-5 years) expectations remained anchored at 2%. This anchoring has strengthened: 53% of business leaders surveyed expected inflation to be 2% over this period, which is 9 percentage points higher than in the second quarter.
Chart 1: Change in annual inflation rate perceptions and expectations (median, %)
Chart 2: Distribution of three to five-year inflation expectations (%)
% of responses
3-5 year forward inflation expectations (%)
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Base wage growth expected by business leaders
Base wage growth expected by business leaders
Business leaders expected basic wages within their companies to increase by 2% over a one-year horizon (median), as in the previous quarter. The distribution of responses remained broadly stable and centred around 2%: 60% of business leaders expected wages to rise by 1.5%-2.5% in the third quarter, which is 3 percentage points higher than in the previous quarter.
Chart 3: Change in one-year basic wage expectation (median, %)
Chart 4: Distribution of one-year expectations of base wage increases (%)
% of responses
One year expected wages increase (%)
Methodology
This survey was carried out between 27th august to 3rd september on a representative sample of 1,700 business leaders. The survey covers three major market sectors of the economy and firms of all sizes from every region of metropolitan France. The opinions of business leaders are obtained by telephone during the monthly interview conducted for the Monthly Business Survey and each business leader is questioned only once a year with regard to this module. Business leaders are asked four questions:
1 - As a percentage, what, in your opinion, is the actual rate of inflation in France?
2 - As a percentage, what, in your opinion, will the rate of inflation be in one year in France?
3 - As a percentage, what, in your opinion, will the rate of inflation be in three to five years in France?
4 - As a percentage, how, in your opinion, will the base wage (before tax, excluding bonuses) change in your firm over the coming 12 months?
Note that the base wage corresponds to gross salary before the deduction of social security contributions and payment of social security benefits. Bonuses and overtime are not included.
The data are trimmed at the 99th centile. To calculate the results, the replies are weighted based on the average number of employees and the relative importance of each firm within its sector, then by the respective weights of the professional branches in terms of value added at the aggregate level.
1 - As a percentage, what, in your opinion, is the actual rate of inflation in France?
2 - As a percentage, what, in your opinion, will the rate of inflation be in one year in France?
3 - As a percentage, what, in your opinion, will the rate of inflation be in three to five years in France?
4 - As a percentage, how, in your opinion, will the base wage (before tax, excluding bonuses) change in your firm over the coming 12 months?
Note that the base wage corresponds to gross salary before the deduction of social security contributions and payment of social security benefits. Bonuses and overtime are not included.
The data are trimmed at the 99th centile. To calculate the results, the replies are weighted based on the average number of employees and the relative importance of each firm within its sector, then by the respective weights of the professional branches in terms of value added at the aggregate level.
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Updated on the 17th of September 2026