Respondents’ expectations for headline inflation, as measured by the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), were 1.8% for 2026, 2.0% for 2027 and 2.1% for 2028. Expectations for 2026 and 2027 were unchanged compared with the previous round (conducted in the fourth quarter of 2025). Expectations for 2028 were not included in the previous survey. Meanwhile, expectations for core HICP inflation, which excludes energy and food, were 2.0% across all horizons, also unchanged from the previous survey. Expectations for the longer term (2030) were unchanged at 2.0% for both headline and core HICP inflation.
Respondents expected real GDP growth of 1.2% in 2026,1.4% in 2027 and 1.3% in 2028. Compared with the previous survey, expectations were revised up by 0.1 percentage points for 2026 but were unchanged for 2027. The upward revision for 2026 was mainly driven by a carry-over from the better-than-previously-expected GDP data for the third quarter of 2025. Longer-term GDP growth expectations were unchanged at 1.3%.
Unemployment rate expectations were unchanged for 2026 and 2027 and revised down slightly for the longer term. Respondents expected the unemployment rate to be 6.3% for 2026, 6.2% for 2027, and 6.1% for 2028 and the longer term (2030).