ECB Consumer Expectations Survey results – February 2026

Compared with January 2026:

• median consumer perceptions of inflation over the past 12 months remained unchanged while median inflation expectations for the next 12 months and for three years ahead decreased slightly; median inflation expectations for five years ahead were unchanged;
• expectations for nominal income growth over the next 12 months remained unchanged, while expectations for spending growth over the next 12 months increased;
• expectations for economic growth over the next 12 months became less negative, while the expected unemployment rate in 12 months’ time decreased; 
• expectations for growth in the price of homes over the next 12 months declined, while expectations for mortgage interest rates in 12 months’ time remained unchanged.

Inflation

In February, the median rate of perceived inflation over the previous 12 months remained unchanged at 3.0%. Median expectations for inflation over the next 12 months and expectations for inflation three years ahead both declined to 2.5%, from 2.6% in January, while inflation expectations for five years ahead remained unchanged at 2.3%. Uncertainty about inflation expectations over the next 12 months remained unchanged in February. Respondents in lower-income quintiles continued to report on average slightly higher inflation perceptions and short-horizon expectations than those in higher-income quintiles, a trend observed since 2023. However, the broad evolution of inflation perceptions and expectations remained closely aligned across income groups. Younger respondents (aged 18-34) continued to report lower inflation perceptions and expectations than older respondents (aged 35-54 and 55-70).