Inflation
In April, the median rate of perceived inflation over the previous 12 months increased to 4.0%, from 3.5% in March. Median expectations for inflation over the next 12 months remained unchanged at 4.0%. Expectations for inflation three years ahead decreased to 2.9% from 3.0%. Inflation expectations for five years ahead remained unchanged at 2.4%. Uncertainty about inflation expectations over the next 12 months remained unchanged at an elevated level. Respondents in lower-income quintiles continued to report on average slightly higher inflation perceptions and expectations than those in higher-income quintiles. Younger respondents (aged 18-34) continued to report lower inflation perceptions and expectations than older respondents (aged 35-54 and 55-70).
Inflation results
Income and consumption
Consumers’ nominal income growth expectations over the next 12 months decreased to 0.8% in April from 1.2% in March. Meanwhile, perceived nominal spending growth over the previous 12 months increased to 5.3% from 5.1% in March. Expected nominal spending growth over the next 12 months increased to 4.3% from 4.1% in March, with respondents in the lowest three income quintiles expecting slightly higher spending growth than those in the highest two quintiles.
Income and consumption results
Economic growth and labour market
Economic growth expectations for the next 12 months became more negative, decreasing to -2.2% in April from -2.1% in March. By contrast, expectations for the unemployment rate 12 months ahead decreased to 11.2% in April from 11.3% in March. As observed in previous months, lower-income households expected the highest unemployment rate 12 months ahead (13.3%), while higher-income households expected the lowest rate (9.4%). Consumers continued to expect the future unemployment rate to be slightly higher than the perceived current unemployment rate (10.5%), suggesting a broadly stable labour market outlook. Quarterly data revealed a mixed labour market sentiment. Unemployed respondents reported an increased expected probability of finding a job over the next three months, rising from 30.1% in January to 32.1% in April. Employed respondents reported a higher expected probability of job loss over the next three months, increasing to 8.8% in April from 8.2% in January.
Economic growth and labour market results
