The mid-point of this survey (approximately 8,500 companies and establishments questioned between 25 February 2026 and 4 March 2026) was marked by the outbreak of war in the Middle East on 28 February: approximately one-third of responses were collected before this date and two-thirds after. According to the business leaders surveyed, economic activity in February continued to grow in line with expectations.
In industry, activity remained above its long-term average for the ninth consecutive month, driven by the technology sectors. Activity in the services sector remained at sustained levels, slightly higher than forecast by business leaders last month, while the construction sector continued to perform well despite an unfavourable environment.
Cash positions deteriorated slightly, with some companies reporting longer customer payment times. Supply difficulties increased marginally, but there are no signs of a lasting deterioration. Selling prices rose moderately across the three main sectors. The temporary work sector remained buoyant.
For March, companies anticipate continued strong activity in industry and services and more limited activity in construction. However, while uncertainty continued to abate in the responses received before 28 February, it rebounded sharply in subsequent responses, with businesses citing the risks of higher energy prices and disruption to supply chains.
Based on the survey results as well as other indicators, we confirm that GDP in the first quarter of 2026 should increase by between 0.2% and 0.3%. However, this technical forecast is subject to downside risk given the uncertainties surrounding the conflict in the Middle East and its impact on supply chains and energy prices, which could weigh on activity towards the end of the quarter.
