Macroeconomic interim projections – September 2026

Published on 15th of September 2026

In order to contribute to the national and European economic debate, the Banque de France periodically publishes macroeconomic forecasts for France, constructed as part of the Eurosystem projection exercise and covering the current and two forthcoming years. Some of the publications also include an in-depth analysis of the results, along with focus articles on topics of interest.

These macroeconomic projections were drawn up in an uncertain international environment, still dominated by the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. In this context, as in our June projections, we present several scenarios characterised by different future trajectories for energy prices that are consistent with those published by the European Central Bank (ECB) for the Eurosystem on 10 September 2026. Our baseline scenario is based on assumptions derived from the futures markets as at 19 August 2026. Under this scenario, oil prices should fall in the third quarter of 2026 and continue to decline over the projection horizon, whilst remaining above the level observed at the end of 2025. By contrast, gas prices should continue to rise as winter approaches, before trending downward from mid-2027 onwards.
According to our projections, GDP growth is expected to come in at 0.4% for 2026. This figure has been revised downwards by 0.1 percentage point compared with our June projections. It should then climb to 0.9% in 2027 and 1.2% in 2028, driven by firmer domestic demand. Economic activity should also benefit from strong export performance in a context where global trade is proving resilient despite a succession of shocks that are likely to disrupt international trade. However, private investment is likely to remain constrained by tighter financing conditions and uncertainty surrounding fiscal policy.
After averaging 0.9% in 2025, headline inflation is expected to rise to 2.3% in 2026 before falling back below the 2% target, coming in at 1.9% in 2027 and 1.6% in 2028. The downward revision to headline inflation for 2026 compared with our June projections is mainly due to oil prices being lower than forecast in our previous projections, and to recent downward surprises in inflation for processed food and services. Conversely, headline inflation has been revised slightly upwards for 2027, due to higher-than-expected refining margins in June and the impact of rising gas prices and weather events on food and electricity prices. Inflation excluding energy and food is expected to remain stable at 1.6% in 2026. It is then projected to increase to 2.3% in 2027 on account of indirect and second-round effects of the rise in energy prices, before falling back to 1.9% in 2028 as the impact of these shocks subsides.
The unemployment rate is expected to continue rising in the short term, reaching 8.4% by the end of the year, before declining to 8.0% in 2028. Compared with our June projections, it has been revised upwards across the entire projection horizon, reflecting a slightly worse starting point in the second quarter and a more dynamic labour force than forecast in June.

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Macroeconomic interim projections – September 2026

Updated on the 15th of September 2026