Short term forecast
Monthly surveys on retail trade and on the manufacturing, services and construction sectors - published at the start of each month - are based on responses from some 8,500 business leaders. They provide an assessment of economic conditions in the month preceding the publication, together with a GDP growth forecast for the quarter.
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Monthly Business Survey – March 2023
We estimate that GDP growth in the first quarter of 2023 will be around +0.1% compared to the previous quarter.
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Monthly business survey - February 2023
We expect a slightly positive GDP growth in the first quarter of 2023 compared with the previous quarter.
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Monthly business survey - January 2023
We expect GDP to grow by around 0.1% in the fourth quarter of 2022 compared with the previous quarter.
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Monthly business survey - December 2022
We expect GDP to grow by around 0.1% in the fourth quarter of 2022 compared with the previous quarter.
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Update on business conditions in France - at the start of November 2022
We expect a slightly positive growth rate of GDP for the fourth quarter of 2022 compared to the previous quarter.
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Update on business conditions in France - at the start of October 2022
We expect the growth rate of GDP for the third quarter of 2022 around ¼% compared to the previous quarter.
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Update on business conditions in France - at the start of September 2022
We expect the growth rate of GDP for the third quarter of 2022 around 0.3% compared to the previous quarter.
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Update on business conditions in France - at the start of August 2022
We estimate that the level of GDP stabilised in July compared with June, at around 0.5 percentage deviation from Q4 2021.
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Update on business conditions in France - at the start of July 2022
Subject to dvelopments in July, we expect the growth rate of GDP for the second quarter of 2022 around ¼% compared to the previous quarter.
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Update on business conditions in France - at the start of June 2022
Subject to developments in June, we expect the growth rate of GDP for the second quarter of 2022 around ¼% compared to the previous quarter.
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Update on business conditions in France - at the start of May 2022
Subject to developments in June, at this stage we expect GDP to grow moderately in the second quarter of 2022, increasing by around 0.2% compared with the previous quarter.
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Update on business conditions in France - at the start of April 2022
We estimate GDP in March at 1 ½ percentage points above its pre-crisis level.
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Update on business conditions in France - at the start of March 2022
We estimate GDP in February at 1 ¾ percentage points above its pre-crisis level.
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Update on business conditions in France - at the start of February 2022
We estimate GDP in January at 1 percentage point above its pre-crisis level.
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Update on business conditions in France - at the start of January 2022
We estimate GDP in December at ¾ percentage point above its pre-crisis level. GDP growth is expected at around +0.6 % in the fourth quarter of 2021.
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Update on business conditions in France - at the start of December 2021
We estimate GDP in November at ½ percentage point above its pre-crisis level. GDP growth is expected slightly below +¾ % in the fourth quarter of 2021.
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Update on business conditions in France - at the start of November 2021
We estimate GDP in October at ½ percentage point above its pre-crisis level. Based on information available on October and November, GDP growth is expected to be close to 0.75% for the fourth quarter of 2021.
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Update on business conditions in France - at the start of October 2021
We estimate the loss of GDP relative to pre-crisis levels at ½ percentage point in September and ¼ percentage point in October. GDP growth is expected to be close to 2.3% for the third quarter of 2021.
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Update on business conditions in France - at the start of September 2021
We estimate the loss of GDP relative to pre-crisis levels at 1% in August and ½ percentage point in September. GDP growth is expected to be close to 2.5% for the third quarter of 2021.
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Update on business conditions in France - at the start of August 2021
We estimate the loss of GDP relative to pre-crisis levels at 1-1.5% in July.
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Update on business conditions in France - at the start of July 2021
We estimate the loss of GDP relative to pre-crisis levels at 2% in June, compared with 4% in May. GDP growth should be close to 1% for the second quarter of 2021.
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Update on business conditions in France – start of June 2021
We estimate the loss of activity at -4% for May and -3% for June. GDP growth in the second quarter of 2021 is estimated at around ½ point.
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Update on business conditions in France – April 2021
Based on the short-term information available at the start of May, we the estimate the loss of activity for April (-6%) and May (-4%).
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Update on business conditions in France – March 2021
The loss of activity is expected to remain close to -4% in March and -7% in April. Over Q1 2021, we expect a slightly positive GDP growth compared with the previous quarter.
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Update on business conditions in France – February 2021
The loss of activity for February is expected to remain close to -5%. Over Q1 2021, we expect a slightly positive GDP growth compared with the previous quarter.
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Update on business conditions in France – January 2021
Based on the short-term information available in January, we the estimate the loss of activity for January (-5%) and February (-5%).
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Updated on: 03/21/2023 15:19