Comparative resilience of banking entities in a financial conglomerate and other banking entities
In a recent research paper (Pouvelle, 2022), we attempt to shed light on the impact for an entity of belonging to a financial conglomerate in terms of profitability (measured by Return on Assets - ROA), risk-taking (volatility of ROA), default risk (Z-score) and resilience of intra-group financing (volatility of the growth of this form of financing), particularly in times of financial stress. To do this, we estimate a panel model for each of these four variables of interest. The data, from the SURFI prudential database, cover 114,000 observations on almost 2,000 banks on a non-consolidated basis, with a quarterly frequency over the 1993-2021 period. The models include various macroeconomic, financial and individual bank control variables, including the size of the entity, the risk density of its assets and the share of loans to the non-financial sector in its balance sheet total. Our variable of interest is an interaction term between a variable of belonging to a financial conglomerate and periods of financial stress, i.e. we create a new variable corresponding to the product of these two variables. Periods of financial stress are defined as periods in which the VIX index, an indicator of financial volatility reflecting the risk aversion of international investors, exceeds the 75th percentile of its distribution (value of 23.2).
It should be noted that the banking entities belonging to a financial conglomerate represent a predominant share of the French banking sector in aggregate terms, with a share of 77% of total banking assets, which underscores the concentration of the French banking sector. However, the number of non-conglomerate banks is higher: 380 compared to 300 at the most recent observation date.
Our results indicate, first of all, that belonging to a financial conglomerate has a stabilising impact from the banking entity's perspective on the volatility of return on assets (ROA), measured as the standard deviation of the annualised net profits to total assets ratio over a rolling 3-year period. The impact on the growth of intra-group financing is similar. This impact is even greater in times of financial stress. Furthermore, belonging to a financial conglomerate reduces banks' default risk, as it has a positive impact on their Z-score, which is constructed as the ratio of the sum of the mean ROA and leverage ratio, divided by the standard deviation of the ROA, calculated over a rolling 3-year period (Chart 1). In contrast, as regards the impact on the bank's profitability, belonging to a financial conglomerate does not affect the level of ROA. Overall, these results seem to rule out the assumption of moral hazard, i.e. less prudent behaviour or excessive risk-taking, associated with belonging to a financial conglomerate. Instead, they illustrate the benefits in terms of risk diversification at the group level in times of market stress, without highlighting any increased risks to financial stability.
Prudential implications
The cross-financial relationships, concentration risks and interactions between banking and insurance entities within conglomerates call for close cooperation between sector supervisors (banking, insurance and financial markets). This highlights the importance of having an integrated supervisor covering several sectors, such as the ACPR in France. While the advantages for banking entities of belonging to a financial conglomerate seem clear, the management of insurance entities must depend on their primary purpose, namely to serve the interests of policyholders. At the same time, shareholders must be able to provide support to their subsidiary in the event of equity problems.