Respondents’ expectations for headline inflation, as measured by the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), stood at 2.7% for 2026, 2.2% for 2027 and 2.0% for 2028. Compared with the previous round, these expectations were unchanged for 2026 and 2028 and revised up by 0.1 percentage points for 2027. Expectations for HICP inflation excluding food and energy (HICPX) stood at 2.4% for 2026, 2.2% for 2027 and 2.1% for 2028. These expectations for 2026 were revised up by 0.2 percentage points, in line with the latest available data, bringing them closer to the June 2026 Eurosystem staff projections, while expectations for 2027 and 2028 were unchanged. Longer-term expectations (for 2031) remained at 2.0% for both headline and HICPX inflation. Responses to a special question on to the war in the Middle East suggested limited expected indirect and second-round effects, which were concentrated in 2026. For inflation, the balance of risks was tilted somewhat to the upside in 2026 and more balanced thereafter.
