Bulletin No. 250, article 3. In June 2023, the yield on 10 year government bonds fell below the yield on 2 year bonds in the euro area. Inversions of the yield curve such as this have sometimes been perceived as a signal of recession, and certain assessments covering past events appear to confirm this. However, other factors may explain the inversion, particularly the asset purchase programme of the European Central Bank (ECB), whose accumulated stocks are driving down long term rates.